Rio '16 Golf: What a Shame

In October of 2009, I pictured this month’s Sports Illustrated cover with grandiose visions dancing in my head from memories of a February, 1991 cover depicting Michael, Charles and the Mailman with Magic and Bird - the Dream Team. 

My imagination, dancing from those memories, conjured up a special meeting in New York City with a few cases of cold suds and a few industry friends. We’d take-over a conference room at Sports Illustrated and SI-writer extraordinaire Jack McCallum would be holding forth, along with the creative minds of Chris Stone (now the head honcho), longtime basketball scribe and author and former Vermont Frost Heaves GM Alex Wolff, legendary writers like Gary Smith, Steve Rushin, Leigh Montville, and Ian Thomsen along with award-winning photographers Walter Iooss and John McDonough.

From the NBA’s side, we’d toss in Brian McIntyre, Russ Granik and Rick Welts, for old times sake, as they were among the architects of the “original” Dream Team. Kim Bohuny, a scratch golfer out of Furman and a longtime NBA-USA Basketball-Goodwill Games executive would be asked to put on both her basketball hat and golf visor, for which we would reward her with a bottle or two of Silver Oak.

From the world of golf, we’d need some creative genius and no better place to start than with David Feherity, commentator, talk show host and former pro golfer. He’d be joined by Golf Channel cohort Tommy Roy, the executive producer on the PGA Tour but also a contributor to the NBA on NBC. Add in the great Bob Condron, formerly of the USOC and currently the venue chief for golf at Rio 2016, along with golf course architect Gil Hanse as the majordomo for the return of the sport of golf to the Games. We’d toss in Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery for some sporting perspective and humor, and top it off with the brilliance of Nick Faldo and Jack Nicklaus to be sure everything was as copacetic as a Bill “Bojangles” dance marathon.

The issue at hand and nearing deadline would be the proper naming and headline writing of my imaginary (but just recently received) “Double Issue” Olympic Preview of Sports Illustrated, once king of Olympic Games coverage. The assembled group would discuss the options.

Fast forward  -- In the July 25-August 1st edition, seven United States Olympians graced the cover. It was fine. There were stories on Simone Biles, the new Queen of women’s gymnastics, on Usain Bolt and the "next gen" of track & field athletes, on the most decorated Olympian ever in Michael Phelps. His USA Swimming teammates Missy Franklin and Katie Ledecky had their S.L. Price moment, right alongside a Price-penned “back-of-the-book” piece on the “Refugee Team,” a group of Olympians competing without the backing of a country to call home or a flag with which to march into the Olympic Stadium.

There wasn’t a single story on GOLF.

With the sport of golf teeing it up for the first Olympics since 1904, I envisioned an issue filled with profiles on the greatest active golfers - the “Dream Teams” of Dormie.

Let’s take a quick look at who could’ve graced the “Golf Plus” SI cover of a lifetime.

USA

Tiger Woods

Phil Mickelson

Jordan Spieth

Rickie Fowler

Spain

Sergio Garcia

Miguel Angel Jimenez

Ireland

Padraig Harrington

Northern Ireland

Rory McIlroy

Darren Clarke

South Africa

Ernie Els

Retief Goosen

Louis Oosthuizen

Australia

Jason Day

Adam Scott

Germany

Bernard Langer

Martin Kaymer

England

Lee Westwood

Justin Rose

Ian Poulter

Luke Donald

S Korea

KJ Choi

Japan

Hideki Matsuyama

Fiji

Vijay Singh

Sweden

Henrik Stenson

And, that’s just to name a few of the sport’s greatest active golfers. 

The SI Cover could’ve looked a little like the album cover of Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band, although I’m not a sure we could replace only four Beatles. We might’ve needed eight or ten silky psychedelic suits to do the sport and its global appeal justice. They could’ve all gathered around on the Zoysia grass with a few flowers to add some color. Peter Blake and Jann Haworth would be much obliged by the newfound work and a hefty Time, Inc. payday.

Of course, the pundits would’ve been conjuring and criticizing an Isiah Thomas-like conspiracy theory snub-fest, fueling enough debate to knock The Donald off the boob tube for a night or two, and we don’t mean The (Luke) Donald.

The gripes?

Where’s Jim Furyk?

Where’s Colin Montgomery, that old crank from Scotland, the birthplace of the sport?

How come there are no golfers from Canada on the cover?

Tiger’s washed up and can’t play anymore (Remember the Larry Bird critics?)

Instead? We give you Golf in the 2016 Summer Olympic games.

Thud! What a waste of a sport.

Just as sure as the IOC reinstated Baseball and Softball for the 2020 games in baseball-loving Japan, you can bet your Callaway Great Big Bertha that golf will get the (sand) trap door at the next world congress of sporting corruption. Hospitality and event planners for 2024, you can kiss your birdies good-bye.

It could’ve been great. It could’ve done for golf what the Dream Team did for basketball in 1992. 

But, oh no, only a handful of the best golfers in the world wanted to play. 

If it were the ’92 basketball players balking, it would’ve been a public relations nightmare for the N.B.A. and, the likes of Ben Simmons, Dirk Nowitzki, Yao Ming and Tony Parker might’ve never seen United States soil, never mind NBA stardom, worldwide fame and fortune. But, this summer, golf is being given the benefit of the doubt and a free ride, PR-wise, as health threats from the terrible Zika virus and the outdoor nature of the game have swayed public opinion of the sporting slight to say, “Well that’s alright with us”

Rightfully, we should point out and give proper credit where it is due to the likes of Kaymer, Stenson, Rose, Fowler, and Harrington. High-fives to Matt Kuchar, Bubba Watson of the USA, Graham Dalaet and David Hearn of Canada and Jhonattan Vegas of Venezuela, just to name a few of the men’s golfers scheduled to compete. And, the women of the LPGA deserve much credit as their showing is strong, but sadly, far less impactful for the overall growth of the sport.

Just think of what could’ve been as we all planned the cover and penned the new name.

What would your suggestion have been for the headline of the Return of Golf to the Olympics issue?

Sadly, we could only come up with - “What a Shame Game.”

DOPED: Looks at Sports' Anti-Doping Underworld

When world-class athletes suit up for competition in the Year 2015, is it just too much to expect an even playing field and the proper enforcement of the rules of their games?

Whether it is the integrity of the “game” officials or the competency of the “table” officials, such as the game timer and official scorer, the proper enforcement of the playing rules is always at the very foundation of sport. However, the findings of a new sports documentary, DOPED: The Dirty Side of Sports, clearly has surfaced the fact that the very foundation of sports as it relates to drug-testing is surely broken.

“We looked at what sports organizations are out there that say they are serving the interest of athletes but maybe aren’t doing their best to hold up their end of the bargain,” said Andrew Muscato, the producer and director of the documentary that premiered on premium tv channel EPIX on September 30.

“The World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) came to mind, since there was some ‘grumbling’ which questioned how effective were these rules, were they working and what say, if any, do athletes have in making these rules? We’ve all seen documentaries going after the athletes who have ‘doped,’ whether it be on Lance Armstrong or countless ’30-for-30s,’ but nobody has looked at the other side of this, looking at the people who are going after the athletes who supposedly have ‘doped.’ That was our main objective,” said Muscato.

Similar to his work exposing the NCAA in the 2013 sports documentary “SCHOOLED: The Price of College Sports,” Muscato and his production team which includes the controversial former MLB manager and current Sacred Heart University (Connecticut) athletic director turned executive producer Bobby Valentine, “DOPED” is a no-nonsense and factual telling of the world behind the anti-doping establishment in sports, both on the world level through WADA and via the United States’ efforts by way of USADA.

DOPED quickly exposed the ground rules or basic “modus operandi” of WADA by having NFL Players Association executive director DeMaurice Smith tell of his first-hand experience when he sought some simple answers to questions he had as a representative of the athletes of the National Football League, which were being pressured to adopt what WADA and USADA officials referred to as the “gold standard” of drug testing.

“A contingent from the NFLPA went up to Montreal to meet with WADA, as DeMaurice Smith says in the film, and they were dismayed at the attitude of WADA in the fact that the NFL players were questioning the validity of the tests. The NFL players had some issues with the lack of transparency by WADA,” noted Muscato.

"The policies used in sports for the war on performance enhancing drugs overreach and underperform," said Muscato on the documentary. "Clean athletes are not only being harmed by these rules, but they have no say in how to improve what's clearly a broken system. In order for a global gold standard to truly work, athletes should be a bigger part of the process and that is how we can get to a better and more amicable solution for all."

Among the more interesting and lesser known points made in the documentary is the account of Olympic track and field star Adam Nelson, an American who was awarded the gold medal for the 2004 Olympic shot put on May 30, 2013, nearly a decade after the fact. Nelson’s 2004 silver medal was elevated to a gold after the IOC authorized re-testing of urine samples taken from Ukrainian Yuriy Bilonog. The tests were botched by WADA in 2004, and showed traces of Performance Enhancing Drugs when they were re-tested in 2013. The result for Nelson in between ’04 and ’13 was a severe loss of income, sponsorship and the ability to fund his training and competitions in the waning years.

 “Adam has a line in the film, that ‘they expect the athletes to be right 100-percent of the time,’ said Muscato. “The anti-doping agencies don’t have to be right 100-percent of the time and nobody pays much mind of that fact.”

“It’s been a decade since many of the rules for anti-doping were codified,” said Muscato, “so isn’t it time to review the rules to see what’s working and what is not?”

“It goes back to an inherit conflict of interest,” said the producer. “WADA likes to say they are an independent body, but they’re not, because of where their funding comes from.

“The only people who want true, clean sport are the athletes who don’t dope. But because of human error and, maybe, some political interests, not everybody is going to be following the same rules.”

The Games of 2015 & 2024

(This column appears as part of my regular series of sports commentary on The Daily Payoff).

By Terry Lyons (Twitter: @terrylyons)

BOSTON - A dangerous game with the highest stakes in the entire sports world is playing out this summer, and about a week ago, the United States Olympic Committee doubled down on its weakening hand. The USOC is gambling with the battered reputation of the United States of America in the international sports community, and the organization’s wager is a “Boston in 2024” bet that has a doubting New England community yelling “CRAPS!”

On January 8th of this year, the USOC surprised the elite followers of the Lord of the Rings with the announcement that Boston was selected over Washington DC, San Francisco and Los Angeles as the USA’s choice to put forth in the high stakes poker game of landing the rights to host a future Summer Olympic Games, targeting the next available Olympiad to be held way in the distant future of 2024. With the fact that the Summer Games have not been held in North America since the ill-fated, domestic terrorist bomb-laden Atlanta Olympics of 1996, the Pundits of the Rings all believed the United States entry had a better-than-average chance at landing the ’24 Games. Since ’96, the better part of the universe has had its hands in the Olympic cookie-jar, including Sydney (2000), Athens (2004), Beijing (2008), London (2012) and all-too-soon-to-be Rio (2016). After that, Asia will host the XXXII Olympiad, with the 2020 events in Tokyo.

That left Olympiad #33 up for grabs, and what better way could there possibly be to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the great Larry Bird’s dual NBA & NBA Finals MVP season than the Summer Games right behind the Fourth of July on the Esplanade?  So the USOC acted on this notion back in January, and all the local Boston politicians and civic leaders jumped right on the bandwagon, figuring there would be much rejoicing. All was fine and wonderful in Beantown, for about as long as it took the New England weather to change.

The cruel winter of 2015 dumped 108.6 inches of snow atop the golden dome of the State House, the worst winter snowfall since 1872, some 24 years before the ancient Olympic Games of 1896. What the politicians and USOC members did not count on during that snowy winter were the two things every Bostonian can claim as his or her own - crankiness and complaining.

Bostonians, and New Englanders, in general, love to complain. They complain about the weather, the weather forecasters, the politicians, the sports teams, and their coaches. Even when the coaches deliver championships, the next season the fans complain. You can ask Red Sox manager John Farrell or Bruins coach Claude Julien, and they’ll tell you, if they still have jobs next week. And, that’s just sports!  When it comes to REAL complaining, Bostonians have three favorite topics: the Big Dig, the traffic, and the transit system, known to all as the T, probably since its formation in 1897, only a year after the inaugural and ancient Olympics in Greece.

Now put this perfect storm together, and you won’t need a PhD in Mathematics from MIT to frame the equation:

IOC + USOC + 2015 + 108.6 (snow) + Big Dig - (new Governor + new Mayor) = Boston - 2024

What is the answer to that problem?

A resounding, “No."

Faster than a politician can flip-flop, the grand plans of Boston 2024 were called into question, and the pronouncement of Boston being the USOC’s city of choice as fact was denounced by civic groups, claiming the 2024 Games would cost taxpayers hundreds of millions. While the snow fell, Bostonians did what they do best and started to complain to their elected officials to the point where all hell broke loose, and the original head of the Boston Olympic organizing group, prominent construction magnate John Fish, had to step down and was replaced by Steve Pagliuca, known to most as managing partner of Bain Capital investment group and co-owner of the Boston Celtics. 

In recent weeks, Pagliuca has done what any newfound co-chair of a committee would do. He called for a “players only” team meeting, re-shaped the Boston 2024 bid specs, and launched version 2.0 in order to appease the inquiring minds of “No Boston 2024” and a public still complaining about the Big Dig, the snow (and the resulting parking and traffic woes), and an ancient, failing transit system. One thing is for sure: in the world of politics, investments, public opinion, and even sports, team meetings, re-launches, and versions 2.0 are not good, although Pagliuca has assured all who will listen that the premise of Boston 2024 will not come at the cost of taxpayers of the Commonwealth and the Summer Games will actually fuel a much-needed rebuilding of two Boston neighborhoods while the city works to finance its aging and decrepit infrastructure.

To that point, Pagliuca and Boston 2024 are right. The failing “T” and the aging roads are not going to fix themselves, and by 2024, they will be nearly a decade older.

So the question remains - Should the USOC put forth a bid to the world for Boston to host the 2024 Olympics?

With world class cities like Paris and Rome amongst the competing cities, a successful Boston bid is a long-shot, at best. Even Hamburg and Budapest might be more viable candidates to the IOC. But the influence of the North American audience (a.k.a. NBC/Comcast television money) might be enough to influence the IOC hierarchy to vote for the USA candidate city, either in 2024 or no later than 2028. The people of Boston need to recognize the fact that the old fashioned way of “complaining and doing nothing” is only a mantra for the GOP, not a city in dire need of modernization.

While the bid-specs detail the use of existing facilities and champion a new approach, tagged as "Olympic Agenda 2020” by the IOC, seeking to cut down on the growing excesses of prior Olympiads, the secret sauce for Boston 2024 is to seek new and better sources of revenue generation. One idea, totally lost in the shuffle of all noise generated this spring, is Boston 2024’s original bid idea to “farm out” some of the events - such as the preliminary round of basketball. In such a plan, two groups of six teams could play to large audiences in cities such as New York or Chicago before coming to Boston for the medal round to be played after artistic gymnastics folds up its tent and TD Garden reverts back to the parquet floor.

Another idea - ripe for the times - is to factor in potential revenue or licensing from all-out sports gambling on certain events of the Games. Properly administered, global wagering from authorized sports books and even daily fantasy sports could add tens of millions to the Boston 2024 coffers, and that would be just for the sponsorship or official licensing rights to the likes of William Hill or Betfair. Affiliate fees and a portion of the take might net enough cash to appease the Boston 2024 naysayers while paving the road for additional fees to further insure possible cost over-runs. The Mass Lottery might like it enough to begin the program as early as the Summer of 2016, when wagering or a DFS lottery on the Red Sox, Celtics, Bruins and Patriots could mint millions, just as the Rio Games are planning to wager their Olympic reputations on the likes of win, place, and show bets on gold, silver and bronze medalists.

Let the Games begin.

Russ Granik: One "Hall" of a Choice

SPRINGFIELD, Mass - September, 7, 2013 -- The Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame will induct its Class of 2013. Included in the diverse group of players, coaches and contributors to the game are five "direct elect" Hall of Famers, in ABA great Roger Brown, little-known basketball pioneer Edward Henderson, NBA Veterans committee electee Richie Guerin and International great Oscar Schmidt. In addition, the rightful inclusion and the Hall of Fame's recognition of former NBA Deputy Commissioner Russ Granik is a wonderful message for the many behind-the-scenes contributors to the global game of basketball.

Granik helped build the court of dreams, the NBA

At times, players and media criticize the inclusion to the Hall for non-players of the game. The question arises when referees or executives are named to the hallowed Hall, and the questions often come with a streak of venom and unfounded criticism. At issue is a simple question, really. Should the Hall be for players only?  Should alll others, including coaches like Red Auerbach, refs like Earl Strom or Mendy Rudolph, contributors like league and team officials such as 24-second clock inventor and Syracuse Nationals owner Danny Biasone or the NBA's first Commissioner Maurice Podoloff, be designated for the same treatment as the media - a seperate wing?

I say no and I can highlight Granik as the reason why.

Granik's official Hall of Fame bio hints at the amazing impact he made.

"One of the most influential contributors to the game of basketball. Granik spent 30 years in the NBA league office starting as a staff attorney in 1976 and finishing his NBA career as the Deputy Commissioner and Chief Operating Officer. He was involved in every major negotiation in the NBA from 1980 to 2005 including television contracts, collective bargaining and league expansion. Overseeing the expansion of the game into the international realm as a key figure in working out the details of professionals (NBA players) competing in the 1992 Olympic Games and subsequent international competitions. He was the NBA’s chief negotiator on four collective bargaining agreements and has served as NBA Executive Vice President (1984-90), Vice President of USA Basketball (1989-96) and President of USA Basketball (1996-2000). He was also the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Chairman of the Board (2003-2007). In 2005, he received USA Basketball’s Edward S. Steitz Award," it says.

The bio just hints at the significance of such a key contributor to the game of basketball. 

Why?

Russ Granik was a quiet, but powerful workhorse behind the meteoric rise of the NBA to global prominence in the 1990s. Most importantly, he was a champion for every level of the game of basketball.  While his accolades and biography list major NBA contributions such as his negotiations of record-setting TV deals, resolved labor stalemates which resulted in trend-setting, progressive Collective Bargaining and Anti-Drug Agreements with the NBA's players, Granik's most significant contributions resulted from his work with the NCAAs, FIBA, the international governing body of basketball, global leagues, federations, Euroleague Basketball, and, most importantly, USA Basketball. 

Under Granik's watch, seemingly unresolvable problems with regard to mending fences, unraveling "red-tape," and creating consensus for the betterment of the overall game of basketball became everyday by-products of a career built on creating goodwill, strong relationships and dealing with people as one would like to be dealt with during a negotiation. That as a professional, a person who is respected and treats people with respect. In essence, Granik is a thoroughly decent human being and he treats his constituents with equal respect. Granik walked softly but carried a resume that could literally part a Sea of Red Tape and, unlike many who only barked of problems while surfacing and creating more problems, Granik would grab a No. 2 pencil, a phone and call upon years of goodwill to resolve most problems before anyone else knew they even existed.

His work in building the NBA-FIBA player pacts, his early recognition of powerful allies with the likes of FIBA Secretary General Borislav Stankovic, the late Coach Alexander Gomelski of Russia and BIG EAST Commissioner/NCAA veep/USA Basketball power-broker (the late) Dave Gavitt, might've earned him induction on its own. Certainly, without Granik's hard work, negotiating skills and willingness to give and take just the right amount, allowed for (former) Eastern Bloc European players such as Drazen Petrovic of Croatia (then Yugoslavia), Sarunas Marciulionis of Lithuania (then of the USSR) and Aleksander "Sascha" Volkov of the Ukraine (then of the USSR) to be the first true NBA global ambassadors, coming to America complete with a bevy of gold and silver Olympic medals but with "game" and a "take it to the hoop" approach never seen before on the international basketball scene.

At the time, the NBA had its Georgi Gluchkov of Bulgaria and long had Henry "Hank" Biasetti, a Canadian player of Italian descent who actually suited up in the NBA's very first game ever, an epic bout between the New York Knickerbockers and the Toronto Huskies in the way back machine that was 1946. But, the league - much because of Granik - was quickly thrust into a modern day model for immigration and exportation for talented ballplayers who wanted to travel to find a good game of hoops. While some may call it a theoretical jump, without Granik's work, the Petrovic/Marciulionis/Volkov era internationals would've been sitting in their rocking chairs wondering if they could've ever driven the lane to challenge the likes of Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson or Larry Bird. The confidence instilled upon a legion of countrymen and Euro-Latin-Australian-Asian counterparts might never have gathered the confidence to say, "Yes, I can do that."

The result might've put Dirk Nowitzki in goal for the German Bundesleague F.C., it might've made Manu Ginobili a striker, Tim Duncan a swimmer or Yao Ming rocket scientist, instead of a Houston Rocket all-star center. And, that, would've been a shame.

London 2012: Olympic Hoops Predictions

The boys in Vegas won't be shocked with my chalk-laced prediction that the United States will successfully defend its 2008 title as gold medalists at London 2012. But the forecast for Team USA's road to gold will come with severe storm warnings. 

To those close to the team, we might replace the Olympic motto of "Faster, Higher, Stronger" with the predicted outcomes of "Close, Closer, Closest." The USA's all-out dominance of men’s basketball – dating back to the ’36 Olympics but underlined in 1956, ’60 and ’92, then re-established by the 2008 "Redeem Team” – will be replaced by one huge factor which will determine the outcome of each and every game, and that will be the USA's ability to force turnovers and score in transition.

It's that simple.

Russell Westbrook of USA vs Tunisia.

"If we win the gold medal, it will be because of how well we play defensively," stressed USA head coach Mike Krzyzewski after his team won-out over Brazil in its recent exhibition game because of a 20-5 second quarter run.

The philosophy developed for the 2012 version of USA Basketball's elite is born from a combination of many factors. That philosophy began the day after the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, then it transpired throughout the 2010 World Championship in Istanbul, and it further unfolded during the basketball season leading up to the 30th Olympiad.

So, let's get one man's take on the big picture surrounding the current USA Olympic basketball team.

First, on the day after the Beijing Olympics, USA guard Jason Kidd hung-up his "USA" jersey and announced he’d played his last game for the national team. Kidd's presence and the obvious addition of LA Lakers guard Kobe Bryant to the '08 squad, were monumental.

While Bryant's ability to guard the perimeter might be over-looked by some, his uncanny leadership skills – along with his willingness to step-up and hit big shots – was an element that put Team USA over the top. So, while Bryant's game made the USA exponentially better, it was Kidd's locker-room demeanor, confidence, and "We're not going to lose on my watch" attitude that gave the younger members of the '08 team a level of swagger that the 2006 USA bronze-medal world championship team did not possess.

Kidd, David Robinson and Ray Allen are unquestionably the best international players the USA had on its roster since the '92 Dream Team passed the torch, along with the impossible task of living up to the legendary efforts in Barcelona. Don’t overlook the fact - losing Kidd hurt.

At the '06 worlds, the USA left home with a backcourt that could not defend the bigger, stronger guards of international play. While the likes of 6-foot Chris Paul, 6-foot-3 Kurt Hinrich and 6-4 Dwyane Wade played defense with tenacity and skill, they were simply outmuscled by a Greek team that ran its pick and roll offense to perfection. Coach K and Team USA – joined by with USA Basketball head-honcho Jerry Colangelo – countered by sliding Lebron James to play the point, but James' defensive abilities in 2006 were nowhere close to his "D" in 2012.

Secondly, after the triumph and relief of '08, the United States had to field a team for the 2010 FIBA world championship.

Gone were Bryant, Wade, James, Kidd, Paul, Deron Williams and the entire core from '08. Instead, Team USA stocked up with a ton of big-time, versatile guards such as Chauncey Billups, Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and a bevy of 6-6 to 6-9 swingmen like Kevin Durant, Andre Iguodala and Rudy Gay.

Meanwhile, as the 2011-12 basketball season and playoffs unfolded, several players – including former NBA MVP Rose, center Dwight Howard and forward Chris Bosh – all suffered nagging injuries that kept them from pushing their bodies through a grueling summer of try-outs, exhibition games and, ultimately, eight tough Olympic games.

The loss of Howard and Bosh, in particular, combined with the personal trials and tribulations of C-F Lamar Odom (possibly the MVP of the 2004 and 2010 national teams), handed the USA with a roster void of big men, the so-called traditional centers. The result: the United States headed to London this past week with a team that might jump "higher" and is infinitely "faster" but is under-sized and certainly not "stronger" in any sense of the word.

The rest of the world’s teams have all studied Team USA closely and will calculate different ways to defeat the Americans. Certainly, it will involve getting the USA's only true center, Tyson Chandler, into early foul trouble. It will involve the defensive strategy to allow the USA to penetrate and pitch for long, outside jumpers.

If the likes of Carmelo Anthony, James, Iguodala, Bryant or Durant are hitting from three-point land, it will translate to 20-plus point victories for Team USA, no matter who the opponent. However, if an Anthony or James struggles with the outside shooting, like Mr. Melo did in the 2006 elimination game against Greece in Japan – or even as the entire USA squad did in its Washington, D.C. exhibition game against Brazil – the upset vultures will be circling, much the way they did when Lithuania ran with the USA until the waning moments in Sydney in 2000.

***

While there wasn’t much suspense to the bold prediction that the USA will win gold at London 2012, the first part of this preview begs an answer to the question; Who might upset the US in men’s basketball?

That's easy, but with these predictions, you’ll be reading about more chalk. The likely contenders for medals, along with the USA, will be the same three teams that graced the medal stands over the last three FIBA world and European competitions. Those are: Spain, Argentina, and Lithuania with Russia and France as sleepers.

Editor’s note: Turkey (2012 silver), Serbia (2010 4th place) and some of the other traditional powers, like Croatia and Italy did not qualify for London.

Here are thumbnail sketches on the medal contenders in London:

SPAIN: The frontcourt size of 7-footers Pau Gasol and his "little" brother, Marc, will be reason for concern for the undersized USA but the key factor for Spain when it faces the USA in medal-round action will be the play of guards Jose Calderon, Juan Navarro, Rudy Fernandez and Sergio Rodriguez. If the backcourt can hold its own and not turn the ball over against the pressure USA defense, Spain will be in the game. Spain has no fear of the USA and will pound the ball into the bigmen in an attempt to get to the free throw line. Spain won the 2011 European championship, no small accomplishment. If both the USA and Spain win their respective pool play rounds, the likely meeting will not come until the gold medal game.

ARGENTINA: Similar to the “last go ‘round” for the core members of the 2006-2012 US national team, the Manu Ginobili-led Argentines know this is the end of the trail. Add that to the potential for the Olympics to be a tournament for 23-and-Under tikes, and it only underlines the fact that Argentina will be competing with heavy hearts and the intangible of sentiment and desire. Ginobili, himself, can become a USA defense-breaker or a turnover machine while Carlos Delfino is a suitable international guard.  Upfront, Luis Scola and Andreas Nocioni are as tough and experienced of an international tandem you will see. Argentina is dangerous, especially to the team that will see them in the quarterfinals and the semifinals.

FRANCE: Seven current or former NBA players dot the roster of the French national team, the runner-up at the 2011 European championship. While the name Tony Parker, the MVP of the 2007 NBA Finals, flows from the mouths of world basketball fans like fine champagne in a NYC nightclub, the key factor for the French team is the absence of one, Joakim Noah, the 6-11, New York City-bred, pain-in-the-ass center of the Chicago Bulls. Because of Noah’s French heritage (nearly every sportsman knows his father, Yannick, was a world class tennis star), and his friendship with many a player on the current French national team, Noah was ready to suit up until a left ankle injury curtailed his 2012 NBA Playoffs and continues to require extensive rehabilitation work. While the French team can do some damage in London, Noah, the NCAA champion from Florida, would’ve made a huge difference when it came to to play Spain, Lithuania, Brazil or the USA.

LITHUANIA: Every time you look up, Lithuania is right there. Whether it’s a European championship, a world championship or the Olympic Games, Lithuania comes to play and they come with size, rebounding and shooting. A pair of Toronto Raptors team members, Linas Kleiza and Jonas Valanciunas will be most familiar to North American fans, along with Darius Songaila of Wake Forest fame and guard Sarunas Jasikevicius, formerly of the University of Maryland. Fans might remember it was Jasikevicius’ potential game-winning three-pointer that was in the air but fell short, partially because of tenacious defense by Jason Kidd and also because of a partial block by Antonio McDyess at the 2000 Olympic Games in Sydney. At London 2012, look for Lithuania to be in the mix for a medal.

RUSSIA: When FIBA created the current system for Olympic qualifying, they sliced off three tournament berths and created a pan-continental, pre-Olympic tournament and money maker. In doing so, they also created “the hot hand.” In the summer of 2012, Russia is the hot hand, coming off the first-pace finish at the recently completed tournament held in Caracas, Venezuela. Coach David Blatt is one of the top international coaches in the world and he’ll bring Andrei Kirilenko, a signee by the Minnesota Twolves, Denver Nuggets center Timofey Mozgov and NBA newbie Alexey Shved.

BRAZIL: As the USA experienced in one of their five friendly games leading up to London, Brazil’s formidable frontline of Nene (Washington Wizards), Tiago Splitter (San Antonio Spurs) and Anderson Varejao (Cleveland Cavaliers) along with quick, sharp-shooting guards, like Marcelinho Huertas or Leandrinho Barbosa, can create some havoc unless Brazil’s opponent forces a ton of turnovers. Aside from the USA, no other team features a game-long, relentless full-court attack, so Brazil can advance deep into the medal round, if the big fellas stay focused, out of foul trouble and relentless on the boards.

The Medal Pretenders:

Australia and Great Britain could all leap-up to grab a medal round berth, especially Great Britain with Chicago forward Luol Deng carrying his national team on his shoulders in front of the hometown fans, who would rather be at Wimbledon, Equestrian or a local cricket game. Australia’s Boomers come to London equipped to grab a fourth place berth in Pool B and from there, a match-up with the Americans, as long as the Americans win-out in their side of the preliminary round.

Happy to be there:

China, Nigeria and Tunisia do not figure to be in play for one of the eight medal round berths. Nigeria surprised all in gaining the third slot at the pre-Olympic qualifying tournament. China has taken a giant step backwards with the loss (retirement) of Yao Ming while Yi Jianlian cannot fill the huge roll left from Yao’s departure, although his tremendous athleticism will be on display for all to see.

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2012 Men's Basketball tournament odds (courtesy of #DigSportsDesk)

USA 1/8

Spain 13/2

France 25/1

Argentina 25/1

Lithuania 30/1

Russia 30/1

Brazil 40/1

Australia 100/1

China 125/1

Great Britain 250/1

Nigeria 250/1

Tunisia 1000/1

Posting Up

Be sure to visit Jack McCallum's new blog which will be promoting his new book, DREAM TEAM.