Ramble On (Early edition) ... Lots of News ... and my Picks

News Item: KG and the NBA Playoffs and Larry Bird League Picks for 2009

Oh, the humanity. Just what are we supposed to do with the uncertainty of Kevin Garnett's health during these days of the first round of the NBA Playoffs. ALl of the KG nay-sayers believe he is out. Even Doc Rivers predicted the worst was yet to come.

To add insult to the KG injury, I was sitting at #3 in our annual "Larry Bird" playoff fantasy league. With either Kobe/Lebron at #1 and either Lebron/Kobe at #2, at my #3, I had the choice of:

Pau Gasol
Paul Pierce
Chris Paul (I had him last year in the playoffs, along with David West)
If Manu hadn't gone down, I would have considered Tim Duncan at #3.

When the time came, I took the safer pick and selected Gasol who under our statistical formula, devised by Larry Bird himself, is actualy a shade better than Kobe in per game fantasy points. I was hoping that Dwyane Wade would fall to me in the second round, as I believe Miami has a significant chance to advance to the point where they can upset the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Wade was gone, however, an early round pick (#5) to Reid, former Bosdton Globie and current St. Louis Post guru.

In the second round, I took my guy - Rajon Rondo - who will put up monster numbers against the Bulls.  The do or die, make or break my team pick came in the fourth round when I selected the one and only "KG" who was still on the draft board after Doc Rivers put the fear of a Bill Walton-type injury into everyone on the planet that follows hoops.  I am thinking that KG is super-human and will do ANYTHING to play and to win, as his (and the Celtics') proverbial "window of opportunity" is closing fast.  In other wordsm I truly believe, "HE'LL BE BACK."

So, for Larry Bird's benefit, along with Terry S. and Steve S., here is my "Terry's on the Side" NBA fantasy league playoff team:

1. Pau Gasol

2. Rajon Rondo

3. Nene

4. KG
5. Jermaine O'Neal

6. Kedrick Perkins

7. Udonis Haslem

8. Big Baby Glen Davis

9. Eddie House

10. Steph Marbury

If I had it to do over again, I would've selected Leon Powe rather than Steph.

Also, for the record, here are my NBA picks series by series:

East:

Celtics over Bulls (6)

Magic over Sixers (7)

Heat over Hawks (6)

Cavs over Pistons (6)

Celtics over Magic (7)

Heat over Cavs (6)

Celtics over Heat (7)

West:

Lakers over Jazz (6)

Blazers over Rockets (7)

Spurs over Mavericks (7)

Nuggets over Hornets (7)

Lakers over Blazers (5)

Nuggets over Spurs (7)

Lakers over Nuggets (6)

And, unfortunately for the fans in the The Hub ... In the Finals, with KG back to about 75%...Lakers over Celtics (6)

News Item: CNN SI's Ian Thomsen on European Hoops:

Ian wrote: "The next goal for Europe is to build one or more basketball leagues that operate at a profit while continuing to feed players to the NBA. That in itself is going to be an enormous undertaking, and maybe it will happen someday in partnership with the NBA so that the European leagues will serve as a kind of farm system to the NBA." Thomsen continued, "If European basketball is ever able to sustain itself as a business that makes money, then we'll be much closer to discussing the NBA expansion overseas than we are today"

News Item: Trump Thinks it is a good time for Entrepreneurial skills and Smart Investors.

TL comment: Amen, brother. Read this clip from CNN transcript:

King: Why [is it a] good time for an entrepreneur and not necessarily for others?

Trump: Well, this is a time for smart people. This is a time for entrepreneurial people. This is a great time for people like me -- and maybe people like you, Larry, because I know you're a great investor. ...

News Item: Around the Horne

A veteran NHL Exec VP, Business and Strategic Development guru headed off the ice to pursue other opportunities. In a report in the Sports Business Daily, they wrote:

NHL Senior Exec VP/Club Business & Strategic Development ED HORNE is leaving the league. NHL Commissioner GARY BETTMAN informed club execs of the news in an e-mail this morning. Horne, a New Jersey native who played hockey at Fairfield Univ. in Connecticut, joined the league as VP/Corporate Marketing in '94 and helped devise the NHL's "Cup Crazy" promotional campaign and several other initiatives. He was named president of NHL Enterprises in '00 and oversaw the league's expansion of blue-chip sponsors like Quiznos and Nextel. After JOHN COLLINS joined the NHL in November '06, Horne's influence and responsibilities began to decrease. In his e-mail, Bettman wrote, "In his 15 years at the League, Ed made significant contributions to the growth of the NHL, raised the profile of the League in the sports community and initiated our Club Consulting practice. He has inspired us all with his love of hockey, his loyalty to the League and his commitment to the growth of the game."

Here's a few items from a profile on Horne done about a year ago:

An idea I wish I had thought of: GPS. I don't know what I ever did without it!

A fantasy job: Coaching an NCAA Division I hockey team.

My job: Every day is different. Even on the tough days, it's better than most anything else I could imagine.

Sports: No matter how many games I watch, I always see something I've never seen before.

Sports business: The warp-speed evolution, not only season-to-season but day-to-day, is remarkable.

Pro sports: These athletes make incredibly difficult things look so easy that anybody could do them.

College sports: The energy, the passion, the bands.

Competing in this business: The competition is always internal -- to be better than I was yesterday.

The future of sports business: Globalization is only a matter of time. The sports world is getting smaller by the second.

News Item: New tech for fingerprinting can open up the "Cold Cases"
The CNN story caught my eye right away this past Thursday morning. I thought it was great and immediately wondered if it could help determine, once and for all, the murderers of Bobby Kennedy and his older brother, JFK. Let's hope it gives a few families some peace of mind, knowing the killers were prosecuted to the full extent of the law. The lead of the story read:

LONDON, England (CNN) -- It was early one Sunday morning when the killer rang at a front door that was decorated with a wreath for Christmas. When his victim answered, he fired four fatal shots, ran off and disappeared.

The unsolved murder of Marianne Wilkinson, 68, in a town near Dallas, Texas, in December 2007 has left investigators with few clues and few leads. They recovered the gun used in the crime a few months later, but the gunman's identity -- and his motive -- remain a mystery.

Now, a groundbreaking technique developed across the Atlantic Ocean in Britain may help Texas police and others to crack cold cases like this.

The technique enables scientists to detect fingerprints on spent bullets and shell casings, even when the print had been wiped off. It works by detecting the minute corrosion of metal caused by sweat, which corrodes the metal in the shape of the fingerprint.

"That sweat is in the pattern of the original fingerprint that was deposited," said John Bond, a forensic scientist for England's Northamptonshire Police and a researcher at the University of Leicester, who developed the technique.

The corrosion is often impossible to see with the naked eye because it's so small -- as small as a micron, which is a millionth of a meter, Bond said.

His method involves dusting the metal with a fine black powder that adheres to the corroded areas, allowing scientists to see the fingerprint.

A detective from the police department in North Richland Hills, Texas, where Wilkinson lived in a gabled home with her husband, went to meet Bond late last year, Bond and the department said.

Bond was able to obtain a print from the shell casings in the Wilkinson case, meaning police could be able to discern who loaded the gun, if they can find a match, North Richland Hills Police Investigator Larry Irving told CNN.

Police are optimistic Bond's technique will bring them another step closer to solving the case.

"Prior to (the detective) coming over, and one of the reasons he came over, is they had little or no forensic evidence for this murder," Bond said. "So my own feeling would be that finding fingerprints would be significant."

Investigators believe Wilkinson may have been the victim of mistaken identity, according to a profile of the case posted on the Web site for the television show "America's Most Wanted," which featured the case.

A neighbor whose address is very similar to Wilkinson's told police she had recently gone through a bitter divorce, and that she and her ex-husband had an ongoing business dispute, according to the Web site.

Large amounts of money were at stake, the show said, and the woman believed she was the intended target.

Investigators traced the gun's history to a man who is now deceased and, authorities believe, had no connection to the slaying, according to the television show's Web site. Police believe the gun has changed hands several times since then and are still seeking information on its latest owners.

The bullet fingerprinting technique won't necessarily solve crimes like the Wilkinson case but could unearth new clues, Bond said.

"It's helping police get evidence they didn't have before," he said. "It's simply a new line of inquiry and can be especially valuable with cold cases."

In September, Bond found fingerprints on a shell casing from another murder case -- a 1999 double homicide in Kingsland, Georgia.

In that case, the suspect or suspects entered a Title Pawn business downtown, shot and killed the two employees and stole a small amount of money, said Kingsland police lieutenant Todd Tetterton.

Police assigned a full-time cold case detective, Christopher King, to the case because of "some things that had changed." The department read about Bond's technique in a magazine article and contacted him to see if he could help, he said.

"We were interested in trying anything we could," Tetterton said.

Four shell casings had been found at the crime scene, but fingerprint testing using traditional techniques didn't reveal anything of use. Bond was able to find fingerprint ridges on three of the four casings, and one of them yielded enough ridge detail to possibly provide an identification, a University of Leicester statement said, quoting King.

Tetterton would only say that more than one shell casing was found at the scene, and said Bond was able to get results for detectives. He declined to say more, citing the ongoing investigation.

"The results are surprising," the university statement quoted King as saying. "I feel very optimistic. These results are better than I had expected and better than I hoped for."

Bond doesn't advertise his services, which he performs free of charge.

"All of the inquiries we've had from the U.S. police forces have all been initiated by them," he told CNN. "We never say no, so anybody who says, 'I've got some shell casings, we have some over 30 years old' -- we always say send them and we'll have a look."

Bond says he tries to know as little about a case as possible before he looks for fingerprints, so no one can accuse him later of looking for something specific.

In one case, he said, he found a partial print on a shell casing sent in by police in Boulder, Colorado. The detective told him it was a fingerprint they expected him to find.

"That was confirmation for me" that the technique worked, Bond said.

The technique won't work, however, if a person has just washed their hands or put on gloves before loading a gun. But Bond said that's not too much of a concern.

"Because of the nature of who these people are and the nature of what they're committing, personal hygiene is not foremost in their mind when they're doing this," Bond said. "It's also the heat of the moment. They might be sweating, perspiring, because you know you're going to go out and break the law."

Ramble On ...

As noted on the Fourth of July, I will not be making daily posts for about a month or so, say from July 4th to August 10th. I will post items and updates and any breaking news on life, family, moving, you name it. In the meantime, my Ramble On column will continue once a week through September.


Ramble On: Cuban's view on the Olympics "using" the NBA and its Players...

Mark Cuban is on record and is repeatedly posting on his blog that the Olympics "Use" the NBA and its players - free of charge - as the players and the Games are a giant TV show orchestrated by GE. (NBC Sports and NBC Universal).

He is half-right.

Here is another viewpoint, posted to Cuban on Blog Maverick:

Hey smart guy? Care to re-think your premise?

NBA Uses Olympics to Tap China's `Amazing' Potential

On BLOOMBERG.COM, Wing-Gar Cheng writes "the National Basketball Association, the most-watched sports league in China, is opening its first stores in Beijing and using the Olympics to boost popularity in its biggest overseas market. Two merchandise stores in downtown Beijing, smaller-scale versions of the league's flagship in New York, will open this month and are the first of 500 to 1,000 planned in China, NBA China Chief Executive Officer Tim Chen said. Sales of NBA goods at the 50,000 current licensed outlets may rise 40 percent this year, buoyed by the Aug. 8-24 Olympics, he said."

PS: The NBA also works with a lot of the international TV stations that air the Olympics. Cuban, with his very limited and domestic viewpoint, overlooks the fact that the NBA is also in the global TV business.

***

Ramble On: Mocking the Mock Drafts...

A blog for sports media analysis took a look at the results of all the basketball pundits as they tried to predict the outcome of the NBA Draft in their various mock draft columns. here are the blogger's results with a "High 5" to Ian Thomsen and a big ? to Hollinger and Chad Ford:

WINNERS

Sports Illustrated’s Ian Thomsen claimed the overall top spot after ranking 4th in the correct pick portion of the analysis and topping the pick difference analysis. Closely trailing Mr. Thomsen were Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer, Sam Smith of Sporting News, Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle and Krista Jahnke of the Detroit Free Press. The Orlando Sentinel’s Tim Povtak, MyNBADraft.com’s Todd Robinson, InsideHoops.com, the Chicago Sun-Times’ John Jackson and the Boston Herald’s David Moore rounded out the top 10. Although he performed well overall, Mr. Feigen deserves some criticism here for completely forgetting (I assume) about Eric Gordon. Not only did he not have Gordon going in the Top 10, as almost every other mock draft did, he completely left him out of the first round.

Mr. Thomsen’s win was fueled by his dominance in the Second 10 picks of the draft. He was the only sportswriter to correctly guess more than two of the Second 10 picks – Robin Lopez to the Suns at #15, Marreese Speights to the 76ers at #16 and JJ Hickson to the Cavaliers – and his picks in the Second 10 averaged only 3.1 draft slots away from where they were actually drafted. No other prognosticator had an average less than 5.0 during the Second 10. Additionally, Mr. Thomsen’s overall average pick difference for the 1st round was 3.667, the only average under 4.0. Finally, Mr. Thomsen finished in the top seven of every single category, with only Mr. Bonnell joining him as a Top 10 finisher in every category. Dominant indeed.

LOSERS

On one hand, I hate to highlight the people who did not perform particularly well on the mock draft, but that is exactly why it is important that someone do this analysis. At some point, we as readers have to trust our sources of information, and it only makes sense that we analyze them to find out who among them is consistently full of it. Much to my own personal surprise, two of my favorite NBA writers – Chad Ford and John Hollinger – were woefully bad on their mock drafts.

It’s not a huge surprise that Mr. Hollinger was off but I had always presumed that Mr. Ford would be at or near the top in an objective analysis such as this considering the amount of coverage he gives the NBA Draft. Mr. Ford was especially dreadful in the Second 10, in which he did not pick a single player correctly and he averaged a second-worst 8.2 draft slots away per player. In addition to picking two players in the Second 10 who were not drafted until the 2nd Round – Mario Chalmers and DeAndre Jordan – he slotted both Kosta Koufos and Donte Greene towards the top of the Second 10.

***

"Paging Mr. Sal Monella ... Please call your office, Mr. Sal Monella."

Can you believe this? The quote of the year: "Tomatoes aren't off the hook". You can't make this stuff up:

By Lauran Neergaard, AP Medical Writer | July 1, 2008

WASHINGTON --Adding to tomato confusion, the government is about to start testing numerous other types of fresh produce in the hunt for the source of the nation's record salmonella outbreak -- even as it insists tomatoes remain the leading suspect.

Investigators are mum on exactly what other vegetables are getting tracked.

Items commonly served with fresh tomatoes is the only hint Food and Drug Administration food safety chief Dr. David Acheson would give, calling it "irresponsible" to point a finger until he has more evidence that some other food really deserves the extra scrutiny.

"Tomatoes aren't off the hook," he stressed. "It's just that there is clearly a need to think beyond tomatoes."

Still, Acheson widened FDA's probe on Tuesday, activating an emergency network of food laboratories around the country in anticipation of lots of additional samples to test.

The reason is that the outbreak continues, with 869 people now confirmed having taken ill. Most troublesome, at least 179 of them fell ill in June, the latest on June 20. That is more than two months after the first salmonella illnesses appeared, meaning the outbreak is continuing weeks longer than food-poisoning specialists had expected -- and suggesting the culprit is still on the market.

Over the weekend, disease detectives with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention began interviewing people sickened in June to find out what they ate and to compare their diets with those of healthy relatives and neighbors. Officials wouldn't reveal early findings, except to say they supported the investigation's new move.

Among the possibilities FDA is exploring is whether tomatoes and other produce are sharing a common packing or shipping site where both might become contaminated, or whether multiple foods might be tainted while being grown on adjoining farms or with common water sources.

Pressure is increasing on the FDA to solve the case, with the tomato industry suffering millions of dollars in losses and pushing for Congress to investigate how the agency handled the outbreak.

But Acheson said Tuesday that there's a growing misconception in the public that if tomatoes really were to blame, the outbreak would only have lasted six weeks.

That's just not true, he said, pointing to farms that rotate harvests so as to keep producing tomatoes for months.

Tomatoes first became a suspect because of what are called "case-control" studies rapidly conducted in New Mexico and Texas, the outbreak's center, CDC food-poisoning specialist Dr. Robert Tauxe said.

Those kinds of studies compare the sick to people who are otherwise similar -- in income, lifestyle, where they live -- but healthy. In those initial studies, about 80 percent of the ill reported eating certain types of fresh tomatoes, far more than the healthy group did, Tauxe said. Statistically, the association was too strong to think it a coincidence.

Some food-poisoning experts say the CDC missed a key step in not taking those studies a step further and trying to trace why some of the healthy ate tomatoes without harm.

For now, the FDA continues to urge consumers nationwide to avoid raw red plum, red Roma or red round tomatoes unless they were grown in specific states or countries that the agency has cleared of suspicion. Check the FDA's Web site -- http://www.fda.gov -- for an updated list. Also safe are grape tomatoes, cherry tomatoes and tomatoes sold with the vine still attached.

That advice is coming under fire too because tomatoes are sent through multiple repacking and distribution sites around the country, even to Mexico and back, regardless of where they're grown. But Acheson said the advice would be fine-tuned only if new science emerges.

Even Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt expressed frustration Tuesday that the case isn't solved.

Blame it on the Jalapeno?

This on the news wires as of July 5th:

Jalapeno peppers are a new focus of the investigation into the salmonella outbreak that has sickened hundreds of people in at least 40 states, according to media reports.
Government health investigators had initially focused on some types of fresh tomatoes, which have been removed from menus across the country, but are turning toward jalapenos as sicknesses continue. Salsa ingredients cilantro and Serrano peppers are also under scrutiny, according to reports.

"Recently, many clusters of illnesses have been identified in Texas and other states among persons who ate at restaurants," according to a recent Centers for Disease Control and Prevention statement. "These clusters have led us to broaden the investigation to be sure that it encompasses food items that are commonly consumed with tomatoes."

As of Friday evening, 943 persons infected with salmonella Saintpaul with the same genetic fingerprint have been identified in 40 states, the District of Columbia, and Canada, according to CDC. Illnesses are believed to have begun in early April.
CNN reported that the U.S. investigation is focusing on imports from Mexico, and that starting Monday inspectors will stop shipments of produce for common Mexican cuisine ingredients. So far Texas is by far the leader in reported illnesses, with 356 reports of ill people as of late Friday. New Mexico has 98 reported illnesses, while Illinois has 93.

Government investigators have been looking for the source of the salmonella outbreak for weeks -- a frustrating experience that highlights the need for more resources dedicated to improved food-safety science. Last month, the FDA's food-safety plan came under intense criticism from the Government Accountability Office, which voiced concerns about its direction and resources.

***

A note from the Asbury Park Press - another sad day on E Street...

Boardwalk fortune teller Madam Marie dies

It was one line from a Bruce Springsteen song that made the boardwalk fortune teller world famous. And now, "Madam Marie" has passed away.

Marie Castello, who had told fortunes since the 1930s and became famous for her presence and predictions on the Asbury Park boardwalk, died Friday, her great-granddaughter, Sally Castello said.

The psychic reader and advisor was 93. She became known worldwide from Bruce Springsteen's homage to her in his music.

"Did you hear the cops finally busted Madam Marie,'' Springsteen sang in his 1973 song, "4th of July, Asbury Park (Sandy)'' "for tellin' fortunes better than they do."

"That was just the Boss,'' said Asbury Park Deputy Mayor Jim Bruno. "She was never arrested. But Springsteen turned her into an icon.''

Madam Marie bragged that she had told the fortunes of everyone from Judy Garland to Springsteen himself. Legend has it that she told Springsteen he was going to be a success. Springsteen later joked that she told all the musicians that.

And Springsteen never forgot Madam Marie.

"He always comes by to say hello," she told Press columnist Bill Handleman in May. "He knows where he came from."

Word of Castello's death spread along the Asbury Park boardwalk over the weekend. The American flag flying over the Convention Hall-Paramount Theatre complex was lowered to half staff in her honor, and it remained that way today.

"Of course, Madam Marie is our longest running tenant here on the boardwalk. ... She's an Asbury Park tradition,'' said Gary Mottola, president of investments for developer Madison Marquette, the lead partner in a joint venture with Asbury Partners to restore or rebuild the boardwalk's entertainment buildings. "We felt that honoring her by lowering the Convention Hall flag to half staff is the right thing to do.''

Marie Castello closed down her regular operations on the boardwalk in the mid-1990s after a dropoff in business. She continued telling fortunes in Ocean Township.



***

Did they Blink in July?


McCain Orders Shake-Up of His Campaign
By ADAM NAGOURNEY of the NYT

WASHINGTON — Senator John McCain’s presidential campaign has gone through its second shake-up in a year as Mr. McCain, responding to Republican concerns that his candidacy was faltering, put Steve Schmidt in charge of day-to-day operations and abandoned an effort to have the campaign run by 11 regional managers, the senator’s aides said Wednesday.

Mr. Schmidt is a veteran of President Bush’s 2004 re-election campaign and he worked closely with Karl Rove, who was Mr. Bush’s political adviser. His installation at Mr. McCain’s headquarters sharply diminished the responsibilities of Rick Davis, who has been Mr. McCain’s campaign manager since the last shake-up nearly a year ago.

Mr. McCain’s advisers said that Mr. Davis would continue to hold the position of campaign manager, but that Mr. Schmidt had taken over every major operation where Mr. McCain has shown signs of struggling: communications, scheduling and basic political strategy.

The shift was approved by Mr. McCain after several aides, including Mr. Schmidt, warned him about 10 days ago that he was in danger of losing the presidential election unless he revamped his campaign operation, according to two officials close to the campaign.


-30-

CNN Sports/SI report: NBA Again Eyeing Euro Expansion

According to Ian Thomsen of Sports Illustrated, the NBA is again considering some sort of expansion for Europe. Thomsen, who recently toured Italy and Russia (Moscow) wrote the story on Wednesday and noted that it would be the topic of discussion when NBA Commissioner David Stern meets the press this weekend in New Orleans.

Thomsen cited league sources in his story, but did not elaborate on if the source was from within the league office or from the teams or European basketball side. (I have not spoken with Thomsen or anyone at the NBA about this story and will follow it as a fan, rather than as 'an insider.')

I look forward to watching it play out.

Here is his story:

NBA mulling idea of five-team expansion in Europe
Posted: Wednesday February 13, 2008 10:07AM; Updated: Wednesday February 13, 2008 11:18AM

The NBA's on-and-off approach to expansion into Europe is back on again. Commissioner David Stern is considering new plans to create five full-fledged NBA franchises in Europe over the next decade, a league source told SI.com.

The initiative promises to be the big news of All-Star weekend in New Orleans, where international basketball officials are arriving this week for their annual meetings with the NBA. Stern is expected to reveal the league's new stance at a news conference Saturday, according to a league source.

The current idea would be to create five new teams in major markets to form a "European'' division within the NBA. The teams would play the full 82-game schedule and compete for the NBA championship. But the proposal is new and many factors will influence the eventual outcome, the league source said.

This will not be the first time Stern has proposed expansion overseas. In 2003, he said the league would investigate planting teams in Europe within a decade, but then shelved the proposal as the NBA focused on developing profitable relationships with China and other emerging markets.

Those relationships have helped Stern formulate a new two-pronged approach to growing the business of the NBA and world basketball in general.

Stern's preference has been to develop international partnerships with local federations and business interests, as in the formal announcement last month of NBA China. ESPN and four Chinese investors have already pledged $253 million to the nascent project.

According to the league source, Stern has realized that it's much easier to do business in emerging basketball markets than in Western Europe, where government regulation as well as the basketball organizing bodies -- the complex network of old-world federations that run the sport in each country and throughout Europe -- have choked off attempts to turn European basketball into a profitable enterprise since the opening of the Berlin Wall almost 20 years ago.

"Say you put five teams there in NBA buildings and see what happens,'' the NBA source said of plans to expand to Europe. "Because then it's out of the hands of the governments; it's an American company with American divisions operating in Europe.''

Pro basketball remains a minor sport throughout Western Europe, with a low-scale popularity not unlike that of soccer in the United States. In an interview with Sports Illustrated two years ago, former NBA player Sarunas Marciulionis, a Lithuanian who founded the Northern European Basketball League, outlined the problems in Europe while calling on Stern to preside over a summit to overhaul basketball on the continent.

"There are no big brands -- none -- connected with high-scale basketball in Europe because it's a mess,'' Marciulionis said while attending the 2006 All-Star Game in Houston. "We need one structure, one clean pyramid. I think David could unite Europe. I think they would listen to him.''

Nothing came of Marciulionis's proposal: The Europeans declined to ask for Stern's leadership, and at that time Stern told SI that he was neither interested in expanding the NBA to Europe, nor was he willing "to intrude'' in the affairs of the European leagues.

But the landscape has changed with the emergence of NBA-styled arenas in Europe. The 02 Arena in London and the soon-to-be-opened 02 Arena in Berlin (both named after a mobile phone sponsor in Europe) are NBA-ready venues outfitted with the necessary suites and amenities. In addition, Rome has broken ground on a new arena, and Real Madrid is expected to begin construction soon on a new building in Spain. Those four cities would be among the leading candidates to receive NBA franchises in the next decade, if Stern pursues his vision. But the expansion is predicated on more arenas being built in Europe in coming years.

Stern has long said that the absence of NBA-sized buildings had been the biggest obstacle to putting franchises in Europe. Now that a marketplace is developing for large arenas capable of providing revenue streams to support NBA franchises, the league can seriously begin to consider expansion overseas.

There is a sense that the clock is ticking down on the league's long-term plan to grow basketball in Western Europe. With NBA-ready buildings sprouting up, the source suggested that Stern feels the need to move before a competing entity seizes the opportunity of moving into those arenas and starting up a new European league from scratch.

Of course, there would be many issues. Would European audiences buy expensive season tickets to 41 home games per year? Would they adapt to the American dynamic of sport as entertainment, equivalent to attending a concert or the cinema? Could the NBA sustain expansion to as many as 35 teams? Would American players be willing to play overseas? And how would teams adapt to the transatlantic road trips?

European basketball officials have been skeptical that the NBA could succeed in the Old World. But others view the success of European soccer's Champions League -- in which huge numbers of fans have watched the best players in the world without necessarily having a rooting interest in the teams -- as an indication that the NBA model could succeed in Europe.

There is little room for the NBA to expand its business domestically. If Stern decides to move overseas, he will do so based on the availability of new venues and the perspective that there are no better options for growing the game in Europe.

"We need to do more market research, of course,'' the league source said. "But in the end there's only one way to find out, and that's by going there and doing it.''

***

A view from across the pond- written Feb. 8, 2008:

Big interview: David Stern
Mr Basketball eager to conquer the lost frontier of Britain


Donald McRae in New York
Thursday February 7, 2008
The Guardian

Twenty-four years ago this week David Stern, a tough but urbane lawyer who grew up working in his father's New York deli, became the commissioner of a near-bankrupt sports organisation. Today, while noting that anniversary in his swanky office on Fifth Avenue with a crumpled frown at the passing of time, the 65-year-old Stern stands supreme at the head of the National Basketball Association as, arguably, the world's smartest sports administrator.
"Am I really that old?" Stern murmurs dryly as he surveys the rise of a sport that struggled, even in America, before he marketed some extraordinary basketball players so shrewdly that he led the global expansion which provides a blueprint for the Premier League. Stern was also lucky that 1984, the year he became commissioner, marked Michael Jordan's debut season. On the back of Jordan's genius he engineered a 500% increase in profits.

As the NBA has just moved its European office from Paris to London, in order to take another crack at an unimpressed British public, Stern can afford to be laconic about a rare failure. "I actually opened an office in London in the early 1990s. I got free space from Hard Rock and we had a basement office. But when the free rent ran out we moved on. We once had a game on BBC2. A really nice guy was head of sport and he probably lost his job by putting on an NBA game instead of an English football match."

The contrast between interviewing Stern and Richard Scudamore, his counterpart at the Premier League, is underlined by the way in which the NBA's head honcho appears to relish the stumbling moments in his otherwise inexorable free-marketeering. Soon after Stern became commissioner, "CBS could only sell internationally what it televised domestically. And one year they cut us down from 18 to four regular season games. So there was a knock on the door from these Italian television guys who said they'd like to buy some games from us. I said, 'Oh, that's nice. Sure, you can buy some games.' They said, 'How much?' I asked, 'Well, how much does CBS charge?' and he said $5,000 a game. I said, 'That's our rate as well.' And that started it all.

"We would go to these trade fairs in Europe and have no idea what we were doing. But, gradually, from that little acorn grew an oak of distribution that now takes our games to 200-plus countries in 43 languages. We're the largest distributor of reality programming in the world - we produce 1,200 episodes a year."

Stern is sharply aware of the Premier League's own soap opera and its irresistible international success. When, in polite deference to our American setting, I ask him what he thinks of English "soccer", he even pats my arm. "You can call it football. We worldly people understand."

He pauses when asked if the NBA considers the Premier League as a rival. "I don't think so. There is competition between the two in terms of sponsorship but they also demonstrate that sport is a unique property for sponsors, television, digital outlets and the fans."

They might share an insatiable appetite for profit but, unlike Scudamore, Stern talks of the need for his superstars to adhere to "a code of social responsibility". Apart from the good deeds he reels off when describing the NBA's work off-court, Stern points out that "we're far past this but three years ago we pledged to donate $100m [for global charities] and construct at least 100 places where kids can read. And we're donating a million hours of public service from our players over five years. But it's actually selfish of us to do it - because it's great for our players."

English football could learn additional lessons from the NBA. Eight out of 20 Premier League clubs are currently owned by foreign billionaires of varying repute. Their nationality is less important than the fact that most new owners see football primarily as an opportunity for personal profit. "They do not have any concern about the local community," Stern says with a grim smile. "Welcome to our world!"

Stern has turned away billionaires who have sought to buy into the NBA. "The question is not whether they are foreign but what person are they likely to be as an owner? We make them jump through certain hoops that might discourage them."

It is hard to imagine Stern allowing Thaksin Shinawatra or even Roman Abramovich to seize control of an NBA team. "I know Messrs Glazer and Hicks and Gillett and Lerner and Kroenke," he says of the high-profile Americans who have moved into English football. "I've not met Mr Abramovich but I think it's going to shake itself out in England. And that's not a play on words because I mean 'shake' rather than 'sheikh'."

That reference to the dented bid from Dubai to buy Liverpool leads to Stern's admission that, for George Gillett and Tom Hicks, "it's a financial transaction. I happen to know [Aston Villa's owner] Randy Lerner and he's a terrific human being who would only operate a club as a community asset. But I also think Hicks and Gillett are very smart. They're not going to do anything to harm the asset."

Most Liverpool supporters bitterly dispute that claim. Even more than Gillett's and Hicks' treatment of Rafa Benítez, and their attempted transformation of a proud football club into a business "asset" for their own gain, the debt with which they have saddled Liverpool bodes ill for the future. "I understand. But you need to step back. It's either that or the clubs can operate themselves into oblivion because they won't be able to carry the load and finance the new stadium."

That same dubious principle, of landing a club with a massive debt which works as a loan for American businessmen to buy up any Premier League team they fancy, was laid out during the Glazer family's takeover of Manchester United. The Glazers dumped a debt in excess of £500m on to United. Gillett and Hicks have just finalised a £350m loan to strengthen their hold on the club - and a large chunk of that sum is now Liverpool's responsibility.

Stern would not allow such a situation in his own organisation. "Well, we have certain rules in the NBA. We have a limit to the amount of debt that can be placed on a club at purchase. Right now that's $150m [£75m]. Our franchises don't have the valuations of the highest Premier clubs but I think the core issue in the UK is the gulf between the haves and the have-nots."

Stern stonewalls a query as to whether the Glazers are well regarded in America. "I don't really know. I don't follow them." He is more supportive of Kroenke - who holds a 9.9% stake in Arsenal - and suggests that the club's English shareholders should not dismiss him. "He's a good guy. He's a friend and an NBA owner who has operated the Denver Nuggets and made investments and made it part of the community. He's improved the arena, brought soccer to the community and he's involved in other sports projects."

With regard to English football, however, "the motivating factor for Lerner and Kroenke and all these guys is that this is an investment opportunity that seems smart. But the smartest way is to know you can do well and do good at the same time." Stern's focus remains clear. "Every business should be saying China, in terms of sheer growth and bulk, is our No1 aim. India is No2. But Europe is a great market - especially with the Olympics coming to London. Basketball has moved up as an Olympic sport and it's going to be the No1 ticket in Beijing. It'll also be a very important ticket in 2012 with Luol Deng and maybe Ben Gordon [both of the Chicago Bulls] playing for GB."

Deng, the 22-year-old former Sudanese refugee whose family fled to London in the early 1990s, discovered basketball in Brixton. Despite now being an NBA star, Deng's fierce desire to play basketball for this country was finally realised last summer after he received his British passport. "No one person can transform the sport but Luol Deng is an extraordinary player and a unique individual with an understanding of his role. My guess is that there are far more young Brits bouncing the ball than even the government or the Olympic authority understand - and there are far more elite players travelling on British passports than anyone understands. I see 2012 as a real opportunity - as the beginning of something new for basketball."