When Will American Pharaoh Run?

The suspense is killing me. When will American Pharoah run? Just tell me, please, when and where will he run?

The horse racing world is abuzz this week as fan speculation on the whereabouts of Pharoah’s next race is being fueled by a considerable amount of old-fashioned lobbying. Since thoroughbred owner Ahmed Zayat’s initial statement two days after The Belmont Stakes, the odds-on favorite for the Triple Crown winner’s next race was The Haskell at Monmouth Park in New Jersey. However, a June 18th social media posting by Zayat turned the racing world upside down when the horse owner cryptically tweeted, “right know Saratoga is in the lead. Head of Haskell.” (sic).

That post might have the folks at TVG, known as America’s #1 online horse wagering and TV network, scrambling for a PR flack re-write as the broadcaster had previously issued a press release, complete with Betfair odds on Pharoah’s next run, which stated:

4-to-5 - August 2 - Haskell Invitational, Monmouth Park (NJ)

4-to-1 - August 1 - Jim Dandy Stakes, Saratoga (NY State)

4-to-1 - August 22 - TVG Pacific Classic, Del Mar (San Diego, California

7-to-1 - August 29 - Travers Stakes, Saratoga 

16-to-1 - September 26, Awesome Again Stakes, Santa Anita

20-to-1 - August 29 - Mystic Lake Derby, Canterbury Park (Minnesota)

20-to-1 - September 19 - Pennsylvania Derby, Parx (Bensalem, PA)

33-to-1 - September 26 - Jockey Club Gold Cup, Belmont (New York)

10-to-1 - “The Field” also known as Any Other Race

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“American Pharoah won the nation’s heart when he crossed the finish line at the Belmont Stakes to end the 37-year wait for a Triple Crown champion,” said Kip Levin, CEO of TVG. “His time in the spotlight is hardly over, however, as he is expected to hit the track once again. The real question on everyone’s mind is, ‘Where will he race next?’”

As American Pharoah was shipped from Kentucky to California for a “promotion and appearance” at Santa Anita, the speculation swung mightily from Monmouth to Del Mar to Saratoga over a 24-hour span of time.

“I’m intimately involved with all the goings on,” said Dennis Drazin, advisor to the New Jersey Thoroughbred Horseman’s Association to Stephen Edelson of the Asbury Park Press. “It’s a lot of money. But at the end of the day, what I would say is that (trainer Bob) Baffert is a top horseman, and regardless of the money, you have to do the right thing for the horse. And the right thing for the horse is to run at Monmouth Park against straight 3-year olds. You don’t want to attack older horses at this point.

“The ultimate goal is the Breeders’ Cup Classic and you have to plan for him getting to that race,” said Drazin to the APP. “The Haskell, although it’s not a walkover, it’s the right kind of race. It’s straight 3-year olds on a track he’ll love. Baffert’s been a winner seven times (at The Haskell)."

Immediately after the perfectly-timed Zayat social media post, the twitterverse went wild with further speculation and Drazin declined comment to his Asbury Park pundit.

American Pharoah is now looking at his non-racing public appearance at Santa Anita in California for the track’s Gold Cup day on June 27. Importantly, the colt’s breeding rights have already been secured by Ashford Stud in central Kentucky’s bluegrass country and his stud fees will range between $175,000 and $200,000, placing a conservative $17.5 million for annual fees, according to numerous published reports.

The question for trainer Bob Baffert and owner Ahmed Zayat will remain secret as they field requests from “all kinds of tracks,” according to Baffert. Last weekend, American Pharoah returned to Churchill Downs, site of the colt’s Kentucky Derby win, and was applauded by 30,000, just for a stroll in the park.

“We won’t know for a few weeks,” said Baffert to the Asbury Park Press. “We want to do what’s best for American Pharoah, not what is best for the racetracks.”

Certainly, what is best for all, including the Triple Crown winner, is to continue to fuel interest in the sport of kings while his keepers fuel speculation and keep the industry in the national news. But, as they decide what is best, the victims of that campaign might just be race track ticket buyers who scramble for admission and attempt to make their summer travel plans, whether it be to Monmouth, Saratoga or maybe, Del Mar,

Get your rider’s up!

(This column is among those which regularly appear in The Daily Payoff. Please visit HERE).

And, They're Off, starring Dewey Dreams

Check out "America's Best Racing" for amazing insight into the Sport of Kings ... Here is an example:

Derby ...

Here's a post about a horse getting a bad post.

Big Brown, the favorite to win the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby, drew pole position #20 in the "Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports" race this Saturday. The last time a horse won the Kentucky Derby from the 20-hole was 1929.

When the big favorite named Big Brown, touted as the three-year old with no comparison in 2008, fell to such an unlucky post, it certainly opened the playing field for an upset.

After careful study the field and listening to some of the experts previewing the race, I am left with a Daily Racing Form filled with notes and scribbles. The contenders include (in alphabetical order); Anak Nakai, Big Brown, Colonel John, Court Vision, Gayego, Pyro and Take of Ekati. The possibles include; Cowboy Cal, Denis of Cork, Monba and Recapturetheglory. That's 11 horses, thank you very much.

I have to cut that crew of 11 down to a manageable number, so let's look at the horses that can win this race.

Big Brown is 3-for-3 lifetime with the win over Smooth Air in the Florida Derby as his previous performance. I'm not a huge Kent Desormeaux fan, but, on the other hand, I can't toss the grandson of Danzig aside despite the poor position out of the gate.

Court Vision had an impressive pre-Derby workout and is the horse to beat in my book.

Pyro and Colonel John must be included in your exactas and triples. The Colonel Wins in Kentucky is a headline just waiting to happen and he is getting the most praise from the various trainers. Cory Nakatani rode Colonel John to a win at the Santa Anita Derby on April 5th while Pyro was upset by Todd Pletcher's Monba at the Blue Grass a week later. The bad news for Monba is Pletcher's 0-19 Derby record and the fact he had a whopping five entries a year ago and none finished better than sixth. That said, seven of the last nine Triple Crown stakes races were taken by a horse whose trainer hadn't been to the winner's circle at the Derby, Preakness or Belmont.

Cowboy Cal, another Pletcher entry, and Gayego caught bum posts at the 17 and 19th positions, respectively, so they might be in for long trips and should be considered in Preakness Stakes exactas. No horse has ever won from the 17 and 19th hole and there is no reason to think that streak will change when the Churchill stampede starts on Saturday.

So, the plays:

5x to win on Court Vision.
2x Exacta Box on Court Vision and Colonel John
Triple combos with Big Brown, Court Vision, Colonel John up top and those three along with Pyro to come in place and show positions.

A chalk $1 tri-box of Big Brown, Court Vision and Colonel John.
A couple of longshot tri-boxes with Anak Nakai (30-1), Pyro (6-1)and Take of Ekati (15-1)and my Beyer speed tri-box of Big Brown, Pyro and Recapturetheglory.
A 'lottery ticket' $1 Tri-Box with Big Brown, Monba and Recapturetheglory.
Lastly, and only if it pours, a slop $1 tri-box of Big Brown, Smooth Air and Denis of Cork.

***

Now, when all of the picks that I've listed above fail miserably, you are advised to turn your attention to The Preakness but first follow the instructions on the video embedded below and drink heavily: