High Stakes Game in TV Ratings

(This column regularly appears at The Daily Payoff)

By TERRY LYONS, Contributing columnist at The Daily Payoff

In recent weeks, we’ve paid our fair share of attention to American Pharoah’s run to the Triple Crown of horseracing, watching intently as the once-in-a-generation thoroughbred racehorse won graded stakes at Churchill Downs, Pimlico and Belmont Raceway. American Pharoah delivered on the track, but his Triple Crown win translated into only 18.6 million television viewers on NBC, down from the 20.6 million fans who tuned into California Chrome’s failed bid at The Belmont in 2014. When Pharoah had the Triple Crown on the line at The Belmont, you might’ve thought the stakes were as high as they’d get but, as spring turns to summer and stretch-run at Belmont is in the rear-view, there’s no higher stakes in professional sports than that of the TV ratings game.

Certainly the National Hockey League and NBC benefitted from a strong audience lead-in from The Belmont, as Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final calculated a tune-in of 6.6 million viewers for Game 2 of the series between the Tampa Bay Lightening and Chicago Blackhawks, the strongest non-clinching game TV audience since 1994. The data will improve as the Stanley Cup series, split 2-2 as of this writing, moves on to Tampa for a pivotal fifth game.

Meanwhile, after the longest break in NBA playoff history between the Conference Finals and the NBA Finals, the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers are in the midst of a memorable NBA Finals series, with NBA MVP Steph Curry of the Warriors and the league’s best player, Lebron James of the Cavs doing battle on the court. However, the real numbers are being crunched, off the court, by the Disney Corporation, the caretakers of ABC Sports, cash cow cable entity ESPN and the NBA on ESPN property. As of this writing, the 2015 NBA Finals are the highest-rated ever on ABC with Game 4 delivering a 13.9 overnight rating to be joined with the league’s soaring numbers after the first three games of the Finals. Those ratings points translate to some 18.6 million viewers turning into the series, with the numbers — like the NHL’s — sure to go up as the league is guaranteed no fewer than six games to determine the champion.

Delving deeper into the NBA on ABC numbers, the Nielsen ratings in Game 4 were up 31 percent from the Miami vs. San Antonio numbers of a year ago with the ABC ratings averaging 13.1 (overnight), up some 26 percent over 2014. Of course, those are record-setting numbers for ABC Sports and do not factor against the record numbers the NBA did when NBC Sports carried the property and veteran broadcast chief Dick Ebersol put the pedal to the metal to promote Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls to the tune of a Game 6 1998 NBA Finals record rating of 18.7 when no fewer than 30 million tuned into the NBA Finals from United States households, alone, nevermind the growing and strong international audience for basketball.

To be clear, the television ratings game of the winter-spring sports, such as horse racing, ice hockey and basketball cannot and will not compete with the television audience for the NFL’s biggest game - The Super Bowl. Last February, the New England Patriots exciting victory over the Seattle Seahawks saw a Nielsen rating blockbuster of 47.5 that translated to a US audience of 114.4 million viewers for the NFL and TV’s biggest audience of the year. Quite simply, there will never be a sporting audience viewing a game on TV that is larger than the NFL’s Super Bowl audience.

The other interesting point of comparison in the high stakes ratings game for televised sports properties in Major League Baseball which saw an 8.2 ratings average and 13.8 million viewers tune into the 2014 series, according to Sports Media Watch. Between Jordan’s last game in 1998 and 2008, the World Series consistently out-rated the NBA Finals. But, over the past five years (2010-2014), the NBA Finals has out-rated Major League Baseball’s World Series and the trend is surely going to continue in 2015, unless October brings about a miracle story (Insert Chicago Cubs joke here!)

One other interesting factor in televised sports ratings is to look at the numbers from the competing local markets. In Cleveland, Game 4 of the NBA Finals generated a 45.7 rating for the 20+ point Golden State blowout of the Cavs. In the Bay Area (SF market), the broadcast delivered a solid 30.5 rating. Pretty amazing audience numbers for the NBA which was largely criticized, especially by NASCAR and Fox Sports tv executives, when the 2003 NBA Finals drew all-time ratings lows of 6.5 for the New Jersey Nets vs. San Antonio Spurs series.

That … was a long time ago.

NBATV Doc on Doc - MUST SEE TV

It will air this Monday on #NBA TV in USA.... I have nothing else to say, write, state.  It is MUST SEE TV for anyone that ever saw or hoped to see the Doc.

#NBA #NBAFinals #NBATV Never seen before footage, hometown tour #JuliusErving #DrJ Doc at his best NBATV documentary #SportsEmmy Must see
— DigitalSportsDesk (@DigSportsDesk) June 5, 2013

TL

Interesting Research ... but get me a fact checker

Dallas Mavericks Coach Rick Carlisle today on ESPN's Mike & Mike Radio show reiterated his view that Dallas Mavericks star Dirk Nowitzki is among the top ten players in history of the game of basketball.  He backed up his point, citing that Dirk is among the players who have 10 NBA All-Star Game selections/appearances and have league MVP and Finals MVP awards to their name.  On the air, Carlisle quickly listed the group:

Bill Russell

Michael Jordan

Larry Bird

Magic Johnson

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

Moses Malone

*Julius Erving

Wilt Chamberlain

Kobe Bryant

*Oscar Robertson

Carlisle went on to say that Nowitzki is the 11th player to be added to the group.

* = Not really....

As a TL Blog reader pointed out previously, Hakeem Olajuwon accomplished those terrific milestones and awards and added many more.  (gold medalist, two-time NBA Finals MVP, All-Defensive team honors, etc.).  I am not able to devote the time to a ton of additional research on this lofty group and I don't want to minimize Dirk's place in history, by any means.  I believe he is the third best international player to play in the NBA with Tim Duncan the best and Olajuwon being the second-best. But, I quickly checked to see who was the MVP of the 1971 Finals and it was Abdul-Jabbar, so that leads me to cross off Oscar from the list, as he did not win a Finals MVP. Also, Moses Malone was the MVP of the 1983 NBA Finals and '83 was Julius Erving's only NBA title, so cross off another.

As noted above, Tim Duncan who has both Olajuwon and Nowitzki and many of the others beat with 13x NBA All-Star, three NBA Finals MVPs and two NBA regular season MVPs but he is most often grouped with the USA players because of his upbringing in the USVI and the fact he played for USA Basketball.  So, Duncan is in that area of technically being an international player as he was from outside the 50 US States.  (Side note, Hakeem, like Duncan, played college ball in the USA and he represented the US in the 1996 Olympics after becoming a citizen, but make no mistake, Olajuwon is from Nigeria, just as Duncan is from the Virgin Islands.

Amazingly, Rick Barry never won an NBA regular season MVP and fell short on the number of All-Star appearances, as he split time in the ABA.  Willis Reed qualified on the MVPs, but also fell short in NBA All-Star Game appearances.

The moral of the story, don't believe everything you hear/read in the media, even from respected NBA coaches.

***

Other random thoughts and notes for this Tuesday.

1. From a buddy via twitter.  Can the NY Post ask for anything more from the Anthony Weiner debacle? 

The Post headline writers have been ridiculous.

2. Ask me about JessicaCallahan.com

3. Home ice has held in the Stanley Cup Finals, backing that old saying that a series doesn't really begin until someone wins a road game.  Well, we've got quite a series between Boston and Vancouver.

4. For you F-Troop fans out there, think Canucks goalkeeper Dominic Luongo would enjoy his new nickname or L-WRONGO (as in Wrongo Starr?)

5. US Open golf = Retief Goosen.

Thoughts for a Friday morning

The NBA has a 2-3-2 format which is often criticized by sports purists who prefer the traditional 2-2-1-1-1 that the NHL Stanley Cup Finals employs.  Question of the day?  Which do you prefer and why?

The "pivotal" game five of the NBA Finals was played in Dallas last night and the Mavericks prevailed in what many believe was one of the best NBA Finals games of recent history.  The series now shifts to Miami where the Heat have a chance to repeat what the LA Lakers did last year by winning the final two games to take the title.  I love when the NBA Finals go back to the site of Games 1 & 2 with the higher ranked team trailing 3-2.

In the NHL, the pivotal Game five will be played tonight at Vancouver as the Bruins played two tremendous games at home to tie the series at 2-2.  The series is now a best of three with Vancouver hosting the first and possibly last game.  The pressure shifted to the Canucks who must play better than they did in the games played in Boston.  The Bruins have some serious momentum.  

The issue for the NHL will be fatigue.  The physical and challenging series is now stretching out and the coast-to-coast flights will begin to take their toll o the skaters and goalkeepers.  The (potential) transcontinental travel was one of the reasons the NBA shifted from the traditional format to the 2-3-2, that coming after a Phila-LA series in '83 and two Boston-to-LA NBA Finals in '84 and '85.  The 1986 NBA Finals was the first modern day series to be 2-3-2 and their were many a critic who claimed that it was damn near impossible for a team to win three games in a row on its home court in the middle of the series.  The NBA also cited the extra cost of moving the series from city to city especially for media paying to cover the travel costs.

The NHL, although with a small media contingent, helps media defray costs and save time by chartering planes that move NHL staff and media back and forth.  Smart move for sure.

Usually very opinionated on the issues, I find myself undecided on this issue.  Each method has its merits.  The purist in me likes the 2-2-1-1-1 but the 2-3-2 has the upside of keeping the players less fatigued which would be my prime concern.  Tough call.  I'd love to hear your views.

***

I got a kick out of the Boston fans who "respected" the playing of the Canadian national anthem, then sang the Star Spangled Banner at the top of their lungs to show support to the USA-based Bruins over the Vancouver Canucks of British Columbia.  The subject was broached by Bill Simmons in his "Grantland.com" column today. The question I pose: Aren't most of the Bruins players from Canada?

***

I can't wait to see the media barrage and Twitter barrage to come from Dallas Mavericks team owner Mark Cuban when the NBA Finals conclude.  And, if Cuban takes the high road, he'll officially have grown up as an NBA team owner.

***

David "Big Papi" Ortiz has found the fountain of youth (in addition to being in his final contract year). May he spread it to: Peja Stojakovic, Gilbert Arenas, Chad Pennington, Allen Iverson, and Tim Duncan.

***

Pardon me if you saw this on my Twitter account, but wouldn't it be great if NBA Commissioner David Stern walked into the next collective bargaining meeting with Michael Jordan, Patrick Ewing, Dikembe Mutombo and Bob Lanier at his side?  All the former players - who were each deeply involved in union negotiations in the playing days - are now considered management.

***

I don't know if it is FIOS subscribers only, but I am sick of seeing the girl who goes to college in her pajamas for 'education connection."  Who is funding these commercials and what was the finanacial deal?

***

Top Rank has announced that boxer Mike Lee will make his California debut in a bout at the Home Depot Center in Carson on July 9th.  Lee's next scheduled fight, after the July 9 bout, will be a September 16 charity affair at the University of Notre Dame, his alma mater.

***

Name the all-time greatest NBA international player?  I'll narrow it down for you:  Hakeem Olajuwon or Dirk Nowitzki?  

***

In past NBA Finals when the series is tied 2-2, the winner of Game 5 (Dallas) has gone on to win 19-of-25 series. But, when 1-1, the winner of Game 3 (Miami) is 11-0.  Go figure.

***

Nenad Krystic is the first international player this year to take the money and run.  The free agent center who finished up the 2010-11 NBA season riding the bench for the Celtics, took an offer with CSKA-Moscow.  By the way, former CSKA and Italian national team coach Ettore Messina signed as an assistant for Mike Brown in LA.  In Toronto, Jay Troiano, the first non-American to be a head coach in the NBA, was fired by Toronto.  Heat Coach Eric Spoelstra is part Filipino.

***

NBA referee Bob Delaney has officiated his last playoff game and has retired after 25 years running the NBA floors.  Here's to a great run, Bob.  

***

Congrats to Alex Wolff and Jim Durham, winners of the Basketball Hall of Fame's Gowdy Media Awards for 2011.

Stating the Obvious?

Here are some random thoughts to consider on a busy weekend in the sports world.  In no particular order.

The Chicago Bulls vs. Miami Heat series will be determined on the play of the Chicago "bigs."  Figuring that the likes of Derrick Rose, Dwayne Wade and Lebron James will perform at their usual amazing levels, I am looking at Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer as the difference makers, along with the unsung defensive game of Luol Deng (on James).  

The Chicago frontline can control the boards and neutralize Miami forward Chris Bosh's offensive skills, while clogging the middle and forcing Miami to its perimeter game.  Miami's Joel Anthony will have his hands filled. If James hits long jumpers and three pointers, like he did so well vs. Boston, so be it.  If Miami has to live and die by the jumper, they will struggle. So, I like Chicago's chances, especially because of home court advantage and their stronger defense and rebounding.

***

In Game 7 between the OKC and Memphis Grizz, a series made for NBA TV if there ever was one, I like OKC to eek-out a victory and advance to play the Dallas Mavericks for the right to NBA runner-up for 2011.  There is no truth to the rumor that the Western Conference finals will be switched to Tru TV!

***

On the NHL side, I think the hometown Boston Bruins can hit stride and advance to the Stanley Cup finals, riding the shoulders of goaltender Tim Thomas.  Game 1, tonight, is a big one to set series momentum and hold home-ice advantage for the B's.  I also like Vancouver over San Jose in a series made for the Versus network (yes, same joke works for the NHL).

***

In the PGA, the Players - aka the fifth major - look for Luke Donald to post a mid-60s score on moving day.  Angel Cabrera has already posted a serious Saturday score.

***

As Charles Barkley says, "I may be wrong but I doubt it."

Chuck, Joe, Isiah, Lam: All Brothers in Arms... with Matt

Here is my brief, helpless post-funeral salute to my good friend, Matt Dobek.  It comes about a week and two days after I heard the terrible news which shocked us all to a 'lump-in-your-throat, stop-in-your-tracks stand still.  I felt particularly terrible as I hadn't spoken to Matt since hearing of his unfair firing by the former employer this past May. In the week that has passed since his death, I've quickly realized that none of it matters.

Not a thing. Not the firing, nor the fact that a lot of us didn't know or understand the state of mind that Matt was in during his final days. It doesn't matter, now.  He's gone and there's not a damn thing any of us can do about it. And, that is why this is so damn sad and why it'll stick with us for a long, long time.

I met Matt, appropriately, in an NBA media hospitality room at the old Bellevue Stratford Hotel in Philadelphia.  For you trivia buffs, that is the same hotel in which the Legionnaire's Disease was first reported in summer of '76.  I met Matt in late May, 1983, as he was joining the Pistons right after his very first job as an SID at Wayne State University.  It was about a year after he had interned for then-Pistons PR man, Bill Kriefeldt, when the team played at the big, bad Silverdome in Pontiac, Michigan.

Kreifeldt, too, as history would have it, was let go -- abruptly -- by the Pistons organization and had been asked to work the 1983 NBA Finals as the Eastern Conference PR rep. to assist with "beers and buses," as I used to say.  Dobek was stepping into a tough situation in Detroit.  His predecessor was well-liked and very well thought of by the small but growing corps of media that covered the NBA beat.  Matt was the new kid on the block when Menudo was king of pop and Ronald Reagan was POTUS. Dobek, as we all called him, would have to stand on his own two feet and establish himself as a good PR guy in the league that was about to take-off on a soaring, upwardly mobile ride to the bigtime.

I had been with the league office for only two years, starting as an intern from St. John's, I might add, and I was tipping-off a string of some 135 consecutive NBA Finals games.  As per usual, I enjoyed taking the new, younger PR guys aside and letting them know they had a friend and ally in the NBA league office. All of the PR assistants and a lot of the interns did a great deal of work and we, at the league office, often relied on the young PR assistants to help out when a local story merited national attention or when the likes of the coveted CBS Sports "Game of the Month" came along or the crack USA Network crew, or later ESPN, then TBS, then TNT-then ESPN (again) would be rolling into a town near them.

Matt and I hit it off pretty damn nicely while he quickly earned his stripes with all of the media and NBA PR Directors, even the Kreifeldt contemporaries who gave Matt a rightful chance to prove himself.  Plus, soon afterward, Kriefeldt hooked up with the Utah Jazz and all was well in the Land of PRs. The up & coming Pistons (Isiah, Laimbeer and Kelly Tripucka) were early fodder for the likes of the Celtics, 76ers or Bucks for a year or so. But a remarkable Pistons vs. Knicks, circa 1984 fifth and deciding game of a first-round series put the soon-to-be-bad-boys on the NBA map for the rest of the decade, an impressive feat since the club was competing in the league playoffs for the first time since 1977.

As the Pistons edged their way up in the eastern standings during the year which would end with yet another Boston win in a memorable 1987 Boston Garden & Vinnie Johnson-Adrian Dantley head-bumping clash. Dobek gained the respect of Coach Chuck Daly, along with all of the players and front office types. In 1988, the two teams would meet again and I remember the battles over Memorial Day Weekend in Pontiac.  I also remember walking into the Silverdome at some ungodly hour to prepare for a 1pm holiday tip and the cleaning crew of the Dome had yet to pay a visit after Saturday night's Monster Truck-a-palooza or something. The place reeked of stale beer and garbage and Matt Dobek had to deal with it.  But, the Pistons would finally defeat the Celtics that year, winning two games at the old Boston Garden and closing it out in the last-ever NBA game at the Silverdome.  One of my favorite memories of Matt came after total pandemonium broke-out amongst 60,000 "crazy car-makers, as John Salley called them, when Detroit took the Eastern Confference Finals series in six games with a 95-90 victory over the rival Celts and it was time for some post game interviews.  

The players wanted to celebrate and were already undressing near their second-floor lockers up an awkward staircase in the bowels of the Dome, but Matt marched into the locker and started barking out orders to the tune of "Get your asses dressed again.  "Lam, I need you to do home radio; Isiah, your doing Pat O'Brien and CBS; Vinnie, I need you, too.  Mahorn, get dressed, we're opening up the locker for the media!"

My jaw dropped as I brought Isiah Thomas to a relatively quiet area to do a live postgame interview with "CBS' At the Half host O'Brien and Matt grabbed a few players and headed back to the trenches. Matt had some serious clout and he was doing his job like a pro under pressure.  Of course, later on that night, we had some downtime with friends, Pistons front office workers and their entourage when we made our way over to Giannopolous' bar in the 'burbs of Auburn Hills, MI.

As time passed by, we spent more and more time in Detroit.  From the Troy Hilton to the Somerset inn where we played some pretty mean "pop-a-shot" and a variation of the game, called "Natural Fruit Pop-a-Shot." From the Finals vs. the LA Lakers in '88 to "Back-to-Back" titles over the Lakers and Portland Trail Blazers in '89 and '90.  We watched the Troy Marriott being built, brick-by-brick, thank God. From victory parades that ended with team-leader Rick Mahorn tossed to the expansion draft wolves to the 1992 Tournament of the Americas in Portland to the Barcelona Olympics to the 1993 NBA Draft where a capacity crowd cheered Michigan's Chris Webber, Matt Dobek was there and he was getting the job done - whether it be with the Pistons or assisting Coach Daly with his USA Basketball duties or assisting the league office set-up for the Draft.  Matt was there and he was damn good.

Off the court, we often found time to get a cold beer, take in a Tigers game (old Tigers Stadium) or make our way to see a horse race or two.

At Barcelona in 1992, we sat side-by-side at the Opening Ceremonies and shook our heads in wonder and amazement after Antonio Rebollo, aka "the paralympic archer," shot the arrow over the stadium wall to light the Olympic Flame.  This, of course, came after many a cerveza, resulting in a Matt Dobek sprint down Barcelona's famed Montjuic without a men's room in sight. Matt had to go and Cerveza San Miguel waits for no man.

We laughed and laughed.  And, it seems like yesterday.

I liked it better back then.

I liked it better when there were "only" 13 or 33 channels, too.

I liked it better when Connors played McEnroe at the Open,

and when "The Garden" had red seats, orange, yellow, green and blue seats.

I liked it better when Zink did the announcin' and Harry did the dancin'.

Kareem did the sky-hookin' and Earl the Pearl was spinnin' as a Baltimore Bullet.

I liked it better when there were at least two papers in every town and people actually read them.

I liked it when we went to the Old Miami near the Cass corridor.

Shelby and Corky at our sides, too.

I liked it better when Alex Sachare tossed his water on Mark Pray and the slice of lemon stuck on his sport coat like a boutonniere on the groom. (mistakenly, I might add).

I liked it better when we cruised San Antonio and Matt whipped out his cell phone at 3am to call Coach Daly, stating, "Don't worry, he'll be up."

I liked it better when Matt Dobek was alive and well and living near Auburn Hills, Michigan.

***

Here's to Matt and The Bad Boys:

BROTHERS in ARMS:

"These mist covered mountains
Are a home now for me
But my home is the lowlands
And always will be
Some day you'll return to
Your valleys and your farms
And you'll no longer burn
To be brothers in arms.

"Through these fields of destruction
Baptism of fire
I've watched all your suffering
As the battles raged higher
And though they did hurt me so bad
In the fear and alarm
You did not desert me
My brothers in arms.

"There's so many different worlds
So many different suns
And we have just one world
But we live in different ones.

"Now the sun's gone to hell
And the moon's riding high
Let me bid you farewell
Every man has to die
But it's written in the starlight
And every line on your palm
We're fools to make war
On our brothers in arms"    -- Mark Knopfler, Dire Straits

  ###

En Fuego

A tremendous shooting performance by both teams has provided basketball fans with a tremendously competitive Game 3. The half-time score is 59-54 and i HIGHLY recommend you tune into ABC SPorts or the NBA TV partner in your country to see the rest of this game. Kobe Bryant leads the LA Lakers with 21 points on 8-15 shooting. Four Orlando players (Alston, Turkoglu, Howard and Lewis all have 10-or-more points with Alston leading the way with 13 at halftime.

Orlando is currently shooting 75% from the field while LA is shooting a "more human" 54-percent.

The Magic have 17 assists on 24 field goals.

Tune in.

Celtics Blog - Live .... Post (4)

It's good to see the banners and the parquet back in teh Boston Garden where they belong. the last time I was in the building, the NCAA Eastern Regional Finals between Pitt and Villanova, the parquet and banners were tucked away in place of a 'clean' NCAA venue.

It was strange, to say the least. The only time in my life that I'd seen a basketball game in the Garden without 14, 15 or 16 NBA championship banners hanging in the rafters.

Not to mention, the fact they took Bobby Orr's #4 down, along with nine other Bruins retired numbers, including my favorite #9 for Johnny Bucyk.

Nets 26- Celtics 17 ... hmmm #17?

Will that happen this June?

Predicting the Future ...

(This blog entry is adapted from a column penned for UK-based web site Basketball 24/7):

What in the name of Jimmy the Greek was I thinking when I agreed to do a special column for Basketball 24/7 to predict who will advance of the 2008 NBA Playoffs?

Predicting the winners of seven of the eight series in the first round this season would require a quorum of Nostradamus, Carnac the Magnificent, Kreskin, Merlin and Charles Barkley all assembled at a town meeting with a few cases of Coors Light and, even then, they might shoot air-balls on two-thirds of their picks. It is just that tough.

Never has it been so close. Never has there been so much at stake.

In past years, an upset in the First Round (see GS Warriors over Dallas last season) was a ticket to certain death in the NBA conference semifinals. In past years, an early round series upset winner was delivered straight to the slaughterhouse to see a powerhouse, such as the Boston Celtics or LA Lakers of the 80s, the Detroit Pistons of 1990, the dynasty Chicago Bulls of the entire 1990s or the San Antonio Spurs of the 1999-to-2007 were lurking in the rafters, awaiting the moment to drop a banner and stage a ring ceremony.

This season, one break in the first round might be the E-ticket ride all the way to an NBA championship.

That is what makes the 2008 NBA Playoffs high drama, high intensity, high stakes and a whole load of fun to watch but simply hellish to predict. So, let me now walk the plank to certain ridicule and embarrassment when each of my predictions comes unraveled in the week to come.

The Easy One: We can all agree that the Boston Celtics should dispatch the Atlanta Hawks with the ease of a Ken Rosewall backhand.

Now, the mid-sized match-ups: The Detroit Pistons should dispatch the Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixers deserve plenty of praise for their second-half rallying cry under coach Maurice Cheeks’ new-fangled running style. However, the Pistons have defense, depth, scoring and Rasheed Wallace to fend off anything that the 76ers toss their way.

Out West, everyone in the State of Nevada is picking the LA Lakers to discard the Denver Nuggets. I agree but must place a giant speed bump at the corner of Hollywood and Vine. The Nuggets’ high-octane offense is just what George Karl will order to play ‘giddy-up’ with the Lakers. Marcus Camby and Kenyon Martin must construct a wall of interior defense to counter the fact that Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony will be beaten on the perimeter. The LA Lakers are sure to prevail, although the series might go six or seven.

Now, the impossible: The remaining five series, quite simply, can go either way.

Looking at the Eastern Conference once more, I will give the tip of the hat to the Orlando Magic to upstage the Toronto Raptors and I believe the Utah Jazz will perform the honors of staging the annual T-Mac first-round good-bye party.

The Washington Wizards are calling Lebron James and his Eastern Conference reigning champion Cavaliers every name in the book and have provided the Cavs with enough locker room bulletin board material to last a lifetime. But, I think the Wiz – behind solid play from Antawn Jamison and Brandon Haywood can unseat Lebron and his band. Game 1 will be in the books by the time you read this missive, and that game might be the key to winning the series. Should Washington prevail, the Boston Celtics will face a team that placed three Ls in the Celtics right hand column this season, so beware of the Beltway.

Back in the wide-open, wild-west, the conclusion of this column of dreams or nightmares leaves me to navigate the toughest part of the NBA Playoff first-round bracket – the San Antonio versus Phoenix series and Dallas versus New Orleans portion of the show. I am leaning towards the Phoenix Suns putting an end to the Spurs pseudo-dynasty with an amazing six game upset of the defending NBA champions. The Suns acquired Big Shaq to clog-up the middle and contain Tim Duncan to force the likes of Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili to beat the Suns. I believe the Suns can out-score San Antonio, steal a game in Texas and ride off with the series. Parker is the only answer. If he plays at MVP level, the Suns can set.

Dallas is the trendy pick by media types far and wide, thus far, but my instincts tell me that the team with the better front-court will win a tough series. Chris Paul versus Jason Kidd is the match-up of the year at the point guard spot. However, Tyson Chandler, David West and Peja will be the difference-makers as New Orleans shows the _allas Mavericks the exit ramp.

***

So - playing it out:
New Orleans vs. the Jazz in the Western Conference Finals.
Boston vs. Detroit in the East.

Boston over Utah in six to win.