Here's a post about a horse getting a bad post.
Big Brown, the favorite to win the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby, drew pole position #20 in the "Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports" race this Saturday. The last time a horse won the Kentucky Derby from the 20-hole was 1929.
When the big favorite named Big Brown, touted as the three-year old with no comparison in 2008, fell to such an unlucky post, it certainly opened the playing field for an upset.
After careful study the field and listening to some of the experts previewing the race, I am left with a Daily Racing Form filled with notes and scribbles. The contenders include (in alphabetical order); Anak Nakai, Big Brown, Colonel John, Court Vision, Gayego, Pyro and Take of Ekati. The possibles include; Cowboy Cal, Denis of Cork, Monba and Recapturetheglory. That's 11 horses, thank you very much.
I have to cut that crew of 11 down to a manageable number, so let's look at the horses that can win this race.
Big Brown is 3-for-3 lifetime with the win over Smooth Air in the Florida Derby as his previous performance. I'm not a huge Kent Desormeaux fan, but, on the other hand, I can't toss the grandson of Danzig aside despite the poor position out of the gate.
Court Vision had an impressive pre-Derby workout and is the horse to beat in my book.
Pyro and Colonel John must be included in your exactas and triples. The Colonel Wins in Kentucky is a headline just waiting to happen and he is getting the most praise from the various trainers. Cory Nakatani rode Colonel John to a win at the Santa Anita Derby on April 5th while Pyro was upset by Todd Pletcher's Monba at the Blue Grass a week later. The bad news for Monba is Pletcher's 0-19 Derby record and the fact he had a whopping five entries a year ago and none finished better than sixth. That said, seven of the last nine Triple Crown stakes races were taken by a horse whose trainer hadn't been to the winner's circle at the Derby, Preakness or Belmont.
Cowboy Cal, another Pletcher entry, and Gayego caught bum posts at the 17 and 19th positions, respectively, so they might be in for long trips and should be considered in Preakness Stakes exactas. No horse has ever won from the 17 and 19th hole and there is no reason to think that streak will change when the Churchill stampede starts on Saturday.
So, the plays:
5x to win on Court Vision.
2x Exacta Box on Court Vision and Colonel John
Triple combos with Big Brown, Court Vision, Colonel John up top and those three along with Pyro to come in place and show positions.
A chalk $1 tri-box of Big Brown, Court Vision and Colonel John.
A couple of longshot tri-boxes with Anak Nakai (30-1), Pyro (6-1)and Take of Ekati (15-1)and my Beyer speed tri-box of Big Brown, Pyro and Recapturetheglory.
A 'lottery ticket' $1 Tri-Box with Big Brown, Monba and Recapturetheglory.
Lastly, and only if it pours, a slop $1 tri-box of Big Brown, Smooth Air and Denis of Cork.
***
Now, when all of the picks that I've listed above fail miserably, you are advised to turn your attention to The Preakness but first follow the instructions on the video embedded below and drink heavily:
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From the Boston Globe:
NBC Sports will air extended coverage of tomorrow's 134th running of the Kentucky Derby. Before the 5 p.m. prerace coverage, the network will air "Access at the Kentucky Derby" at 4, featuring a red-carpet segment hosted by "Access Hollywood's" Billy Bush. That portion of the show will have a similar look to the pre-Academy Awards and Emmy telecasts. Post time is 6:04 p.m.
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This year's race is special for several reasons. Big Brown, named after UPS, may be the favorite, but the race is considered by the experts to have a pretty baffling (not to mention crowded) field. The forecast of thunderstorms today and tomorrow could make for a sloppy track. Also, some horses are more used to racing on synthetic surfaces than the dirt at Churchill Downs.
Big Brown, winner of the Florida Derby, is undefeated but has only run three races and will come from the outermost post. No horse has ever won the Derby from the No. 20 post.
Former WBZ sportscaster Bob Neumeier, who will serve as an analyst for NBC and is one of the top thoroughbred handicappers in the country, said one of the more interesting subplots has been the brashness of Big Brown trainer Rick Dutrow.
"It's unusual to have a trainer be so boastful about a horse leading up to a race," said Neumeier. "Most of them are very, very cautious, superstitious, afraid to say much, don't want to antagonize the opposition. Dutrow has been anything but that. He's been loud, he's been opinionated, he's, some would say, a little cocky. He's put his neck on the line with this horse. I kind of like his Muhammad Ali kind of view of this race. He loves his horse. He haughtily selected post No. 20. Most people think that's a disadvantage. He had the choice of a couple of others and I almost think he said, 'Well, I think I'm so much the best that I'll pick post No. 20.' I'm sure there are 19 other trainers and some people who would like nothing better than to beat Big Brown, and particularly Rick Dutrow, in this race."
Neumeier said deciding which horses to bet on is made all the more difficult because of the synthetic vs. dirt debate.
"The Derby is always full of question marks," he said. "Add the synthetic element to it, you can multiply that times 10. If Big Brown collapses and Colonel John doesn't like the dirt, well, then it's wide, wide open after that."
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