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Sunday, March 16, 2008

Picking your brackets: My view of the 'Contenders' and the view of the pundits

I made reference to the Mike and Mike radio show in my last installment of "Ramble On" and stated that Bobby Knight's point on the attributes of an eventual NCAA champion was certainly right on the money. ESPN highlighted a few of their college basketball experts and their vision on post season success.

Here are a few of the basics:

Knight said: "Look for 'guards that can guard.' Look for teams that can take away post play. Look for teams that do not allow easy baskets and teams that have a little fire power."

As my buddy, Spy, said, "Anything else you need?"

Seriously though, Knight is right. The teams that can put the four key items together for the longest period of time in each game will advance through the tournament.

Team defense is the most important item, obviously.

Prior to Knight's pontification, Seth Davis agreed with his view on "guard play."

Tom Brennan said he looks for "interior play."

Andy Katz feels that "experienced coaching" makes the difference in the NCAAs.

Greenberg took that to mean: UCLA.

ESPN Insider and former Blue Ribbon basketball editor Joe Lunardi likes: UNC, Memphis, UCLA and Tennessee, with Kansas as a close #2. And, he said has Duke as another top contender but that was before Duke lost to Clemson.

I like Duke, but make note that Duke lost to UNC at Cameron and to Clemson in the ACC tourney. Not a strong statement in early March.

Lunardi champions two statistical categories that he created to analyze the tournament. The first is "ASM" or adjusted scoring margin. The second is "Lunardi-P-I" or "L-RPI,"a view of NCAA teams minus their home game stats and results.

Among the teams that Lunardi rates highly are: Butler, Drake and Washington State.

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The TL skinny?

Pitt struck me as a team that can advance to the Sweet 16 or Elite 8. When we see the brackets later on tonight, we'll be able to see if Pitt's run to the BIG EAST title helped them grab a key 'seed.' I think they deserve a #2 or #3 seed by virtue of their BIG EAST success.

Georgia had to play two games on Saturday and a game on Sunday because of the intense weather conditions that forced the SEC to relocate the tournament from the Georgia Dome to the empty confines of Georgia Tech, not exactly the perfect days of rest and relaxation. By contrast, Davidson won the Southern Conference tourney a week ago Monday and enjoyed a week to rest up and tune up.

I would look for a team like Davidson to advance to the Sweet 16 this year while Georgia might falter in the Round of 32.

I can't argue a point against the likes of Butler, Drake and Washington State, but, to put cards on the table, I haven't seen them enough to even comment.

I will write more after the selection show.

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